# Crown-play geometry grid — results · 2026-09-09 12:14

328,725 walks = triggers × 27 geometries; α = 0.00026.

| policy | target R | cap min | stop ×ATR3 | n | hit% | R/trig | H1 | H2 | +yrs | p vs 0 | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 120 | 3.0 | 1062 | 13 | +0.036 | +0.084 | +0.001 | 8/15 | 0.2648 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 240 | 3.0 | 1062 | 16 | +0.036 | +0.081 | +0.003 | 8/15 | 0.3096 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 120 | 1.5 | 802 | 16 | +0.034 | -0.030 | +0.108 | 7/15 | 0.3877 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 240 | 2.0 | 1062 | 20 | +0.034 | +0.088 | -0.005 | 9/15 | 0.3714 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 120 | 2.0 | 1062 | 16 | +0.031 | +0.076 | -0.001 | 8/15 | 0.3769 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 240 | 3.0 | 1864 | 14 | +0.026 | +0.005 | +0.045 | 9/15 | 0.2962 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 120 | 3.0 | 1864 | 11 | +0.025 | +0.021 | +0.028 | 7/15 | 0.2732 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 120 | 2.0 | 1864 | 14 | +0.023 | +0.013 | +0.032 | 7/15 | 0.3682 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 240 | 1.5 | 802 | 22 | +0.022 | -0.067 | +0.123 | 7/15 | 0.6184 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 60 | 1.5 | 802 | 10 | +0.021 | -0.018 | +0.066 | 8/15 | 0.5431 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 120 | 1.5 | 1864 | 18 | +0.020 | +0.015 | +0.024 | 7/15 | 0.4725 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 60 | 3.0 | 1062 | 11 | +0.018 | +0.059 | -0.011 | 8/15 | 0.5330 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 240 | 2.0 | 1864 | 19 | +0.018 | +0.001 | +0.034 | 8/15 | 0.5135 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 1.5 | 240 | 3.0 | 1062 | 23 | +0.017 | +0.054 | -0.009 | 6/15 | 0.5878 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 240 | 1.5 | 1864 | 23 | +0.016 | -0.004 | +0.034 | 8/15 | 0.5795 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 1.5 | 120 | 3.0 | 1062 | 18 | +0.015 | +0.053 | -0.012 | 6/15 | 0.5990 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 1.0 | 120 | 1.5 | 802 | 39 | +0.014 | -0.011 | +0.043 | 7/15 | 0.6471 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 1.0 | 60 | 1.5 | 802 | 32 | +0.014 | -0.008 | +0.039 | 10/15 | 0.6356 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 240 | 3.0 | 802 | 11 | +0.014 | -0.074 | +0.115 | 5/15 | 0.6965 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 1.5 | 240 | 2.0 | 1062 | 30 | +0.012 | +0.047 | -0.013 | 7/15 | 0.7189 | refuted |
| P1_expansion_break | 2.0 | 240 | 1.5 | 1062 | 24 | +0.012 | +0.056 | -0.020 | 8/15 | 0.7581 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 120 | 2.0 | 802 | 11 | +0.012 | -0.053 | +0.086 | 6/15 | 0.7437 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 1.0 | 120 | 2.0 | 802 | 36 | +0.011 | -0.032 | +0.059 | 8/15 | 0.7235 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 2.0 | 120 | 3.0 | 802 | 7 | +0.010 | -0.045 | +0.073 | 6/15 | 0.7466 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2.0 | 60 | 3.0 | 1864 | 8 | +0.010 | +0.012 | +0.007 | 5/15 | 0.6391 | refuted |

(top 25 of 189 cells by mean R; full grid in data/crown_geometry.parquet)

## Survivors
none

## Suggestive
none

## Geometry marginals (mean R/trigger across all policies)
rr
1.0   -0.021
1.5   -0.014
2.0   -0.005
cap
60    -0.015
120   -0.012
240   -0.013
mult
1.5   -0.020
2.0   -0.013
3.0   -0.008