# Crown-play policy sweep — results · 2026-09-09 11:58

Sessions in scope: 3569 (2012-01-03 → 2026-09-04). Fill rules per pre-reg (5m close → next 1m open ±0.25pt, stop 2.0×ATR(3)/5m floor 12.0, target 1.5R, 60-min cap, window 09:35–12:00).

| policy | eligible | triggers | W / L / T | hit% | R/trigger | R/eligible day | $ at 1 NQ | maxDD (R) | H1 R/trig (n) | H2 R/trig (n) | +years/15 | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1_expansion_break | 1429 | 1062 | 183 / 381 / 498 | 32 | -0.009 | -0.007 | -$87,312 | -50.4 | +0.036 (447) | -0.042 (615) | 6/15 | refuted |
| P2_contained_fade | 1428 | 802 | 96 / 198 / 508 | 33 | -0.003 | -0.001 | +$9,978 | -20.8 | -0.033 (429) | +0.032 (373) | 6/15 | refuted |
| P3_gap_fade | 2855 | 1147 | 176 / 355 / 616 | 33 | -0.041 | -0.017 | -$44,618 | -58.7 | -0.073 (566) | -0.010 (581) | 4/15 | refuted |
| P4_value_cont | 2472 | 815 | 86 / 243 / 486 | 26 | -0.046 | -0.015 | -$24,757 | -38.8 | -0.062 (395) | -0.032 (420) | 5/15 | refuted |
| P5_on_break | 3569 | 2988 | 535 / 1055 / 1398 | 34 | -0.021 | -0.018 | -$112,983 | -74.7 | -0.023 (1446) | -0.020 (1542) | 5/15 | refuted |
| P6_orb15 | 3569 | 3497 | 311 / 807 / 2379 | 28 | -0.003 | -0.003 | -$6,348 | -69.7 | -0.034 (1656) | +0.025 (1841) | 6/15 | refuted |
| P7_regime | 2857 | 1864 | 279 / 579 / 1006 | 33 | -0.006 | -0.004 | -$77,333 | -44.5 | +0.002 (876) | -0.014 (988) | 5/15 | refuted |

## Per-year R/trigger (P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7)

pol   P1_expansion_break  P2_contained_fade  P3_gap_fade  P4_value_cont  P5_on_break  P6_orb15  P7_regime
year                                                                                                     
2012               0.114             -0.049       -0.025         -0.223       -0.015    -0.016      0.044
2013               0.049             -0.052       -0.097         -0.185       -0.017    -0.048     -0.003
2014               0.018             -0.015       -0.123         -0.078       -0.019    -0.039     -0.002
2015              -0.042             -0.185       -0.190          0.073        0.026    -0.084     -0.114
2016               0.245              0.087       -0.123         -0.015        0.079    -0.063      0.177
2017              -0.114             -0.002        0.010         -0.004       -0.124    -0.016     -0.055
2018              -0.075             -0.010        0.013          0.034       -0.081     0.028     -0.046
2019               0.230              0.108       -0.150          0.110        0.069     0.037      0.188
2020              -0.227              0.092       -0.046         -0.026       -0.153    -0.036     -0.121
2021               0.089             -0.145        0.112         -0.082        0.053     0.063     -0.007
2022              -0.131              0.126       -0.039         -0.094       -0.039     0.042     -0.031
2023              -0.090              0.107        0.031          0.027        0.084    -0.073      0.009
2024              -0.032              0.060       -0.015          0.105       -0.065     0.110      0.005
2025              -0.174             -0.035       -0.001         -0.185       -0.046     0.080     -0.115
2026              -0.037             -0.096       -0.003         -0.133       -0.096    -0.041     -0.047

## Side split (R/trigger, n)

- P1_expansion_break: long +0.037 (589) · short -0.067 (473)
- P2_contained_fade: long +0.076 (300) · short -0.050 (502)
- P3_gap_fade: long -0.076 (667) · short +0.007 (480)
- P4_value_cont: long -0.049 (477) · short -0.043 (338)
- P5_on_break: long -0.002 (1622) · short -0.044 (1366)
- P6_orb15: long +0.009 (1816) · short -0.016 (1681)
- P7_regime: long +0.051 (889) · short -0.058 (975)