We test what futures traders are told, and publish what fails.
Futures Playbook Research is an independent research firm for futures markets. Each study runs on CME futures data back to 2010, net of costs, and is published with its files: the pre-registration where one exists, the result and the code. Most claims fail, and the library says so.
Organizations can commission a study or take the briefs and terminal. Trading for yourself? FP Terminal for individuals.
Do the setups sold for passing prop evaluations beat costs?
- 15-minute opening-range breakout, 2× range targetInconclusiveInconclusive
- Opening-range breakout, let it runRefutedRefuted
- Initial-balance extensionRefutedRefuted
- Initial-balance failed-extension fadeRefutedRefuted
- Range fade after 10:00RefutedRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, New York 10:00–11:00 (sold as 77% at 1:2)InconclusiveRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, 3R targetInconclusiveRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, London 03:00–04:00RefutedRefuted
- VWAP ±2σ band fadeRefutedRefuted
- VWAP trend-day pullbackToo fewToo few
- EMA 9/21 crossoverRefutedRefuted
- News straddle (CPI, payrolls, FOMC)Too fewToo few
- Post-release spike fadeToo fewToo few
Latest studies
15 studies and 950 versions tested so far. Each says what was tested and what happened; the catalogue explains every label.
- FPR-26-15Do the setups sold to prop-firm traders beat costs?Refuted
Thirteen popular day-trading setups marketed to traders trying to pass a prop-firm evaluation (a paid challenge for a funded account), tested on Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 micro futures from 2019 to 2026. None of the 26 setup-and-market combinations made money after trading costs.
- FPR-26-14Holding overnight or by day, opening gaps and calendar effectsRefuted
Twenty-nine tests of everyday timing beliefs: holding futures overnight or through the trading day, which hours the gains come from, calendar effects such as the turn of the month, and whether an opening gap keeps going in the first half hour. None passed after costs. A comparison of economic-report days with ordinary days was only described, not tested.
- FPR-26-13Why do futures rise overnight? Price patterns, news and crowd attentionMostly refuted
Index futures have tended to rise overnight, between the evening and the next morning. This study tested 19 possible reasons: price patterns, scheduled news and crowd attention (measured by Wikipedia page views). Only the night before a Federal Reserve rate decision passed, and those nights were already known from an earlier study, so this is not new evidence. Crowd attention failed.
- FPR-26-12Does the overnight rise come from big-news nights?Inconclusive
Checks whether the overnight rise in futures comes mostly from nights before scheduled news, such as jobs or inflation reports. Apart from the night before a Federal Reserve rate decision, which was already known, no kind of news night explained it.
- FPR-26-11Why the firm's old daily trade ideas lostRefuted
Until October 2026 the firm published daily trade ideas that bought or sold when price broke through a marked level. Replaying the rule behind them on 2026 data for eight futures markets, it lost money after costs in every version tried. The review was done after the fact rather than planned in advance.
The record so far
7 of the 10 claims in the record are refuted and none is validated: one is in a forward test, one is a weak result found after the fact and one was only described. Separately, 13 setups sold to prop traders were tested on both index micros. With this many tests, a few passes by chance were expected. No study has yet been replicated outside the firm.
| Claim | Verdict | What the test found |
|---|---|---|
| Level breakouts | Refuted | Replayed after the fact with the firm's own entry mechanics on eight futures through 2026: about zero before costs, negative after. Not pre-registered; the multi-year opening-range test on the next line was. |
| Opening-range breaks | Refuted | Pre-registered: 320 variants with and without a relative-volume filter, plus a volatility-regime split. None held up after costs. |
| Gamma walls, cages and flow direction | Refuted | 730 days of strike-level dealer positioning. Every wall, cage and flow-direction rule failed. |
| Being long during the day session | Refuted | Eight futures, 2010–2026. None pays after costs; five of eight are negative. |
| Gap continuation in the first 30 minutes | Refuted | A coin flip after earnings nights and after quiet nights alike. |
| Turn-of-month strength | Refuted | Inverted: of the three calendar subsets tested, these four sessions are the only one with a negative NQ overnight average. |
| Crowd attention as a signal | Refuted | Pre-registered. Nights after attention spikes averaged more than the baseline, but the difference failed the multiple-testing bar (p = 0.117 against 0.0033). Not an edge. |
| Release days are wilder | Described, not tested | Described after the fact, not tested: CPI, PCE and payrolls mornings ran about 4% wider than an ordinary day, not multiples. |
| The pre-FOMC night on NQ | In forward test | Found in the 2020–2026 sample (+$972.70 a night, n = 53, t = 3.12, placebo p = 0.009) among about 544 cells tested that day. A frozen forward test needs 8 new FOMC nights before the firm calls it an edge; 1 is in. As studied it also crosses the 17:00–18:00 flat window. |
| The last half hour, 15:30→16:00 | Weak, post hoc | Found after the fact (t = 2.17) once about 25 variants had been screened, and negative on all four index futures in 2023–2026. Not an edge. |
| 13 setups sold to prop traders | 0 of 26 | Opening-range breakouts, ICT Silver Bullet, VWAP fades, EMA crosses and news straddles on NQ and ES micros, January 2019 – September 2026. None beat costs. |
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
What the firm publishes
One research program, published four ways. Nothing the firm publishes names a trade.
Studies
Numbered, citable tests of the claims futures traders are sold, each with its pre-registration status, verdict and the code to rerun it.
Market briefs
London, New York and Asia session briefs: what is moving, why, and what is scheduled, with the consensus for every release. Context, never a trade.
FP Terminal
The firm's research terminal: the futures board from delayed quotes, the desk wire, calendars, dealer gamma, options flow and the volatility surface.
Guides
The prop-trader guide: drawdown arithmetic, losing-streak odds and the rules that end evaluations, built on the same studies.
How a study runs
The method is the product. The full standard, with its limits, is on the methods page.
- Write it down firstThe claim, the exact rule, the data, the costs and the bar a result has to clear are fixed before any result exists. Each pre-registration is now hashed before the run, so the order can be proved; the library shows which earlier studies fell short of this.
- Run it on the tapeMinute data split into in-sample and out-of-sample periods, commission and slippage on every fill, and controls such as a coin-flip version of the same trade, so a result has to beat luck.
- Publish the verdictValidated, refuted or too few trades, with the code and the limits, in the library. Most claims fail, and we say so.
Work with the firm
Research, briefs and seats for organizations. The firm is new to this work, so the first engagements start as a pilot scoped to one use case and priced after it.
Commissioned studies
A pre-registered test of one claim, rule or strategy on CME futures data back to 2010, net of the costs you actually pay. You get the pre-registration, the result, the limits and the code.
Delivered A written report with code and data notes. Yours; published only with your permission.
The brief feed
The London, New York and Asia briefs, the midday updates and the market brief: movers, catalysts, the calendar with consensus, and dealer positioning described as an effect on moves, never as a signal.
Delivered Into your Discord server by webhook; other channels by arrangement.
Terminal seats
FP Terminal for a trading desk, a classroom or a community team.
Delivered Browser seats at app.futuresplaybook.com.
The research library
Every published study with its pre-registration status, verdict and code, plus the methods behind them: cost models, sample splits, controls and the bar a result has to clear.
Delivered Public at futuresplaybook.com/research; commissioned work stays private.
Prop firms and trading educatorsResearch that tells traders what fails before an evaluation fee does.
Brokers and platformsSession briefs for clients, with no trade recommendations to review.
Universities and trading clubsStudies students can replicate, terminal seats and briefs in the club's Discord.
Funds and trading groupsAn outside test of a claim, a rule or a vendor's backtest.
What the research runs on
The data stays in the lab. What leaves is the verdict, the method and the brief.
Independent by design
The firm does not sell trade signals, manage money or take paid placement. Every published study shows whether it was pre-registered and comes with its files, so you can check the verdict yourself. A commissioned study belongs to the client and is published only with their permission.
Trading for yourself?
FP Terminal, the firm's research terminal, is also sold to individual traders at $99 a month, starting with a 3-session free trial. The market page is free for everyone.
For funded-account traders
The free prop-trader guide covers drawdown arithmetic, losing-streak odds and the rules that end evaluations.
Every Sunday
The week in markets by email: the biggest futures moves, what printed against consensus, and next week's calendar. Subscribe free.
Questions
What is Futures Playbook Research?
An independent research firm for futures markets. It tests trading claims on CME futures data, publishes every study behind its claims with the files, writes daily market briefs and builds FP Terminal. Futures Playbook Research is a trade name of The Futures Playbook LLC, a Florida limited liability company.
Who runs it?
The firm was founded by Dr. Alex Djahankhah, a computer-science professor and U.S. Marine Corps veteran, who writes the research rules and runs the studies. About the firm.
Can we check your studies?
Yes. The library has the pre-registration, results and code for each of the 15 studies behind the record, including the ones that were not pre-registered and the defects found in the firm's own files. Market data is not included; you rerun them on your own.
Do you give trade signals?
No. The briefs name no trades, dealer gamma is described as an effect on moves, and the studies report verdicts on rules rather than recommendations. The firm retired its own daily picks in October 2026 when they showed no edge on the tape.
Can you test our own strategy?
Yes. We write the test down with you before running it and use the costs you actually pay. By default the study is yours and is not published without your permission.
Do you resell market data?
No. The firm licenses research, briefs and terminal access, not raw exchange data. Prices in the briefs are context, and the studies report results rather than data files.
How do we start?
Send a request with your organization, who would use the research and what you want answered. We reply by email, usually within one business day.