Futures research you can check.
Futures Playbook is an independent research desk. We test the trading claims people sell and repeat on CME futures data back to 2010, net of costs, and publish the verdict with the files: the pre-registration where one exists, the result and the code. Most claims fail. The studies, the session briefs and the terminal are available to prop firms, brokers, universities and funds for their traders, clients and students.
Check the work first: 15 studies with their files. A pilot is scoped to one use case and priced after it. Trading for yourself? FP Terminal for individuals.
Do the setups sold for passing prop evaluations beat costs?
- 15-minute opening-range breakout, 2× range targetInconclusiveInconclusive
- Opening-range breakout, let it runRefutedRefuted
- Initial-balance extensionRefutedRefuted
- Initial-balance failed-extension fadeRefutedRefuted
- Range fade after 10:00RefutedRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, New York 10:00–11:00 (sold as 77% at 1:2)InconclusiveRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, 3R targetInconclusiveRefuted
- ICT Silver Bullet, London 03:00–04:00RefutedRefuted
- VWAP ±2σ band fadeRefutedRefuted
- VWAP trend-day pullbackToo fewToo few
- EMA 9/21 crossoverRefutedRefuted
- News straddle (CPI, payrolls, FOMC)Too fewToo few
- Post-release spike fadeToo fewToo few
Who it is for
The same research, delivered four ways. The desk is new to organizations: the first pilots will shape what a license includes.
Give your traders research that tells them what fails before an evaluation fee does: the tested-setup library, the funded-account rule checks, and the session briefs in your community.
13 popular setups tested, 0 of 26 validated
Flat window, news blackouts, contract lists
Session briefs for your clients, written before London, New York and Asia open: what is moving, why, and what is scheduled, with the consensus for every release. Context only, so there are no trade recommendations to review.
3 sessions a day, 15 priced futures
Movers, catalysts, calendar, positioning
A working futures desk for the classroom: terminal seats for a student desk, the daily briefs in the club's Discord, and studies students can replicate, with the pre-registration, the costs and the code.
Already delivered to the founder's own college trading club
Commission a study. Bring the claim, the rule or the vendor's backtest; we write the test down before we run it, run it on the tape with your costs, and hand back the verdict and the code.
In-sample and out-of-sample halves
Coin-flip and placebo controls
What you can license
Research, briefs and seats. We do not resell raw exchange data, and nothing we deliver names a trade.
Commissioned studies
A pre-registered test of one claim, rule or strategy on CME futures data back to 2010, net of the costs you actually pay. You get the pre-registration, the result, the limits and the code.
Delivered A written report with code and data notes.
The session brief feed
The London, New York and Asia briefs, the midday updates and the market brief: movers, catalysts, the calendar with consensus, and dealer positioning described as an effect on moves, never as a signal.
Delivered Into your Discord server today; other channels by arrangement.
Desk seats
FP Terminal for a trading desk, a classroom or a community team: the futures board, the desk wire, the calendars, dealer gamma, options flow and the volatility surface.
Delivered Browser seats at app.futuresplaybook.com.
The research library
Every published study with its pre-registration status, verdict and code, plus the methods behind them: cost models, sample splits, controls and the bar a result has to clear.
Delivered Public at futuresplaybook.com/research; commissioned work stays private.
How a study runs
The method is the product. It is the same whether the claim comes from a vendor, a forum, a client or the desk itself.
- Write it down firstThe claim, the exact rule, the data, the costs and the bar a result has to clear are fixed before any result exists. Each pre-registration is now hashed before the run, so the order can be proved; the research page shows which earlier studies fell short of this.
- Run it on the tapeMinute data split into in-sample and out-of-sample halves, commission and slippage on every fill, and controls such as a coin-flip version of the same trade, so a result has to beat luck.
- Publish the verdictValidated, refuted or too few trades, with the code and the limits, on the research page. Most claims fail, and we say so.
The record so far
7 of the 10 claims in the ledger are refuted and none is validated: one is in a forward test, one is a weak result found after the fact and one was only described. Separately, 13 setups sold to prop traders were tested on both index micros. Behind these rows sit 15 studies and 950 tested arms, so a few passes by chance were expected. These are the desk's own studies and have not been replicated by anyone outside it.
| Claim | Verdict | What the test found |
|---|---|---|
| Level breakouts | Refuted | Replayed after the fact with the desk's own entry mechanics on eight futures through 2026: about zero before costs, negative after. Not pre-registered; the multi-year opening-range test on the next line was. |
| Opening-range breaks | Refuted | Pre-registered: 320 variants with and without a relative-volume filter, plus a volatility-regime split. None held up after costs. |
| Gamma walls, cages and flow direction | Refuted | 730 days of strike-level dealer positioning. Every wall, cage and flow-direction rule failed. |
| Being long during the day session | Refuted | Eight futures, 2010–2026. None pays after costs; five of eight are negative. |
| Gap continuation in the first 30 minutes | Refuted | A coin flip after earnings nights and after quiet nights alike. |
| Turn-of-month strength | Refuted | Inverted: of the three calendar subsets tested, these four sessions are the only one with a negative NQ overnight average. |
| Crowd attention as a signal | Refuted | Pre-registered. Nights after attention spikes averaged more than the baseline, but the difference failed the multiple-testing bar (p = 0.117 against 0.0033). Not an edge. |
| Release days are wilder | Described, not tested | Described after the fact, not tested: CPI, PCE and payrolls mornings ran about 4% wider than an ordinary day, not multiples. |
| The pre-FOMC night on NQ | In forward test | Found in the 2020–2026 sample (+$972.70 a night, n = 53, t = 3.12, placebo p = 0.009) among about 544 cells tested that day. A frozen forward test needs 8 new FOMC nights before the desk calls it an edge; 1 is in. As studied it also crosses the 17:00–18:00 flat window. |
| The last half hour, 15:30→16:00 | Weak, post hoc | Found after the fact (t = 2.17) once about 25 variants had been screened, and negative on all four index futures in 2023–2026. Not an edge. |
| 13 setups sold to prop traders | 0 of 26 | Opening-range breakouts, ICT Silver Bullet, VWAP fades, EMA crosses and news straddles on NQ and ES micros, January 2019 – September 2026. None beat costs. |
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
What the desk runs on
The data stays in the lab. What leaves is the verdict, the method and the brief.
Independent by design
We do not sell trade signals or manage money. Every published study shows whether it was pre-registered and comes with its files, so you can check the verdict yourself. A commissioned study belongs to the client and is published only with their permission.
Trading for yourself?
FP Terminal is also sold to individual traders at $99 a month, starting with a 3-session free trial. The live market page is free for everyone.
For funded-account traders
The free prop-trader guide covers drawdown arithmetic, losing-streak odds and the rules that end evaluations.
Every Sunday
The week in markets by email: the biggest futures moves, what printed against consensus, and next week's calendar. Subscribe free.
Questions from organizations
What does a license include?
Any mix of commissioned studies, the session brief feed, desk seats and the research library. We scope a pilot around one use case first, then quote an annual license for what you keep.
Do you give trade signals?
No. The briefs name no trades, dealer gamma is described as an effect on moves, and the studies report verdicts on rules rather than recommendations. The desk retired its own daily picks in October 2026 when they showed no edge on the tape.
Can you test our own strategy?
Yes. We write the test down with you before running it and use the costs you actually pay. By default the study is yours and is not published without your permission.
Can we check your studies?
Yes. The research page has the pre-registration, results and code for each of the 15 studies behind the ledger, including the ones that were not pre-registered and the defects we found in our own records. Market data is not included; you rerun them on your own.
Do you resell market data?
No. We license research, briefs and terminal access, not raw exchange data. Prices in the briefs are context, and the studies report results rather than data files.
Can the briefs go into our Discord?
Yes. They are delivered by webhook into channels on your server; the founder's own college trading club receives them this way today.
Who runs the desk?
The Futures Playbook LLC, a Florida limited liability company. The desk was built by Dr. Alex Djahankhah, a computer-science professor and U.S. Marine Corps veteran, who writes the research rules and pre-registers the studies. About the desk.
How do we start?
Send a pilot request with your organization, who would use the desk and what you want answered. We reply by email, usually within one business day.