Hot PPI vs Retail Sales: August 15 Trading Blueprint

Market Overview & Sentiment News

Global equity markets continue to hover near record highs, bolstered by signs of cooling U.S. consumer inflation and hopes that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates later this year. The mood is tempered by a hot July producer‑price index and weak Chinese factory and retail data, which have raised concerns about global growth. European indices and Japan’s Nikkei extended multi‑week rallies thanks to strong earnings and expectations that a high‑stakes summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska could lead to a ceasefire in Eastern Europe. U.S. equity fund inflows have surged as investors cheer the softer July CPI and an extension of the U.S.‑China tariff truce; technology funds are drawing their biggest inflows since early 2021. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are trading near two‑month lows: traders expect the Alaska summit and weak Chinese demand to unleash a supply surplus of nearly a million barrels per day through mid‑2026. The 10‑year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.29%, the dollar index has slipped from recent highs, and the VIX remains muted, encouraging risk‑taking. Overall sentiment is risk‑on but cautious as traders await the outcome of the Trump‑Putin summit and next week’s Jackson Hole symposium.

Economic Calendar Analysis & Trading Plan

Today’s U.S. calendar is packed with high‑impact data that could reshape rate expectations:

• 08:30 ET – Retail Sales (0.6% MoM): A stronger‑than‑expected retail print would confirm resilient consumer spending and could push yields higher. Equity traders should fade any knee‑jerk rally: look to sell index futures into resistance if the data beats and wait to buy dips back to VWAP if the market overreacts.
• 08:30 ET – Empire State Manufacturing (5.50) and Import/Export Prices (0.1%/0.5%): An upside surprise in manufacturing could support industrial names; a weak print may reinforce growth concerns. Watch for quick momentum trades around VWAP in the Russell 2000 and Dow.
• 09:15 ET – Industrial Production (0.3%) & Capacity Utilization (77.6%): These reports gauge factory output and potential supply constraints. Fading moves back toward support/resistance zones after the data provides good scalping opportunities.
• 10:00 ET – University of Michigan Sentiment (61.7) & Business Inventories (0.0%): Consumer sentiment can swing the market if it surprises; strong confidence could bolster the rally, whereas weak data may accelerate profit‑taking.
• All Day – Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska: Energy traders will track headlines on a potential ceasefire and sanctions relief. A breakthrough could send crude prices lower and lift European equities; disappointment could spark a relief rally in oil.
• After Hours – TIC flows: Net long‑term capital flows provide insight into foreign demand for U.S. assets and may influence Treasury yields.

Trading plan: Enter trades around these events using disciplined VWAP‑based entries and tight stops. For retail sales, consider shorting rallies into resistance if the print is hot, while buying dips if the data disappoints. Industrials and small‑caps may see the biggest moves on the Empire State and production numbers. Stay nimble around the summit headlines, as any hint of peace could ignite sector rotations.

Foundational Analysis

• Inflation cross‑currents: July CPI eased, giving the Fed room to cut rates, but the hotter PPI print reminds traders that price pressures haven’t vanished. Rate futures are pricing roughly a 92% chance of a 25 bp cut in September, but expectations for a larger move have diminished.
• Oil oversupply risks: Analysts project that global crude supply will outpace demand by roughly 900 k bpd through mid‑2026 as U.S. production remains robust and a ceasefire could bring more barrels to market. Combined with soft Chinese consumption, this supports a bearish bias on energy futures.
• Mixed global growth: Japan’s GDP surprised on the upside, but Chinese factory output and retail sales continue to disappoint. U.S. consumer spending remains solid, but manufacturing data is mixed. This divergence encourages a barbell approach—long U.S. and Japanese equities while hedging against Chinese weakness.
• Tech leadership with selectivity: Mega‑cap tech continues to lead indexes higher, yet valuations are stretched and some AI‑linked names have reported disappointing earnings. Investors should focus on quality and use VWAP retests for entries.
• Low volatility environment: The MOVE index and VIX remain subdued, inviting carry trades and leverage. However, upcoming events like the summit and Jackson Hole could spark volatility spikes.

Technical Analysis

• ES (S&P 500 futures): Overnight trading rallied to around 6,450 before selling off below VWAP near 6,440. Price is consolidating near 6,420. Buy dips at 6,410‑6,420 with stops below 6,400, targeting a rebound to 6,445‑6,460. A break below 6,400 opens a move toward 6,370.
• YM (Dow futures): YM retreated from highs near 45,450 and is hovering around 45,310, below its VWAP at ~45,360. Maintain a bullish bias above support at 45,200‑45,250; a push through 45,350 could target 45,450‑45,500. If momentum fades, look for a dip toward 45,100.
• NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures): NQ sold off from 23,180 and is trading near 23,050, under its VWAP around 23,180. Use VWAP retests at 22,950‑23,000 for long entries, with stops below 22,900 and targets at 23,150‑23,200.
• RTY (Russell 2000 futures): RTY is consolidating around 2,292, slightly below its VWAP near 2,310. Buy dips at 2,280‑2,290 targeting 2,300‑2,310, with stops under 2,270. Failure to hold 2,270 could trigger a move to 2,250.
• GC (Gold futures): Gold continues to firm around 3,340 with VWAP near 3,340. Longs on pullbacks to 3,330‑3,335 remain attractive, with targets at 3,360‑3,370. A close below 3,320 would negate the bullish bias.
• CL (Crude oil futures): Crude has tumbled to the $63.00‑63.50 zone, well below its VWAP near $64.00, amid fears of an oversupply. Look to short rallies toward $63.80‑64.20, keeping stops above $64.50 and targeting $62.00‑62.50. A surprise bullish headline from the summit could spark a short squeeze toward $65.00.
• Overall themes: Most equity futures are consolidating below their session VWAPs after an overnight rally and sell‑off. The bias remains cautiously bullish for equities and bearish for crude, with VWAP levels providing key inflection points.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• Retail sales reaction: Trade the 08:30 ET data by fading exaggerated moves back toward VWAP. A strong print may spur an early pop in yields and a dip in tech; use quick shorts into resistance with tight stops and be ready to reverse if the move stalls.
• Manufacturing & production data: The Empire State and industrial production reports could drive rotation into industrials or small‑caps. Scalpers should focus on RTY and YM futures, buying dips on positive surprises or shorting rallies if the data disappoints.
• Sentiment & inventory figures: The 10:00 ET Michigan sentiment index may shift intraday momentum. Fade knee‑jerk moves; strong sentiment may produce a surge‑fade pattern, while weak confidence could lead to profit‑taking.
• Summit headlines: Stay close to the news feed during the Trump–Putin summit. A ceasefire and sanctions relief would be bearish for energy and supportive of European and emerging‑market equities. Scalpers should consider shorting crude rallies and buying dips in European‑exposed sectors.
• Global momentum & tech setups: Positive Asian export data and strong inflows into tech funds support break‑out trades in the Nasdaq and semiconductor names. Use VWAP retests for precision entries and limit size due to elevated valuations.
• Hedging & risk management: With yields sensitive to data and headlines, hedging long tech exposure with short positions in bond‑sensitive futures can smooth equity P/L. Always manage size and stops, as the low‑volatility environment can change quickly.
• Use a Virtual Private Server: Executing trades with sub‑millisecond latency can offer an edge. Consider using QuantVPS to improve execution speed.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• Surge‑fade patterns: A strong retail sales number could trigger an initial spike in equity futures followed by a fade back toward VWAP as traders digest the implications. Watch for support near the morning lows to hold; a break would signal deeper consolidation.
• Energy volatility: Oil may remain under pressure until the summit outcome is known. If a ceasefire is announced, crude could sell off sharply, but a breakdown in talks might lead to a relief rally above $64.00.
• Industrial follow‑through: Better‑than‑expected industrial production may sustain momentum in small‑caps and cyclicals. A miss could accelerate the rotation back into defensive growth stocks.
• Fed anticipation: Markets will parse today’s data for clues ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Unexpected strength could reduce the probability of a September cut, while weak data would cement it.
• Late‑session positioning: Once the bulk of data and summit headlines have passed, expect volumes to thin. Watch for sector rotations and yield pivots that could create scalping opportunities into the close.

Summary

With U.S. consumer inflation cooling but producer prices running hot, markets are at a crossroads. Traders are counting on a September rate cut, yet today’s heavy data slate and the geopolitical stakes of the Trump–Putin summit could challenge that narrative. Equity futures are consolidating near record highs after an overnight sell‑off, gold is steady as a hedge, and crude oil is vulnerable to oversupply concerns. Scalpers should lean on VWAP‑based setups around key economic releases and be prepared for headline‑driven whipsaws. A forward‑looking, nimble approach will be essential as the day unfolds.