Fed Decision Day: Futures Flat as Retail Sales Beat, IP Firms, HMI Steady — Sep 17, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. equity index futures trade near flat into the FOMC (statement 2:00 ET; Powell 2:30 ET). August retail sales beat keeps growth signals alive as yesterday’s IP firmed at the margin and builder sentiment stayed subdued. Oil is steady into the 10:30 ET EIA release, and 10Y yields hover near ~4.0–4.1%. Read: cautious, range-biased risk tone into the decision with sensitivity to Powell’s tone and the new SEP. Technical Analysis Expect a compressed AM range with expansions keyed to 10:30 / 14:00 / 14:30 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP loss favors mean-reversion shorts back toward mid/previous balance; VWAP holds with improving breadth support continuation flags. ES: Lean long above VWAP on higher lows + improving cumulative delta; flip short on decisive VWAP break with breadth deterioration. NQ: Momentum-skewed;...