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Fed Decision Day: Futures Flat as Retail Sales Beat, IP Firms, HMI Steady — Sep 17, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook

Fed Decision Day: Futures Flat as Retail Sales Beat, IP Firms, HMI Steady — Sep 17, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook

Market Overview & Sentiment News

U.S. equity index futures trade near flat into the FOMC (statement 2:00 ET; Powell 2:30 ET). August retail sales beat keeps growth signals alive as yesterday’s IP firmed at the margin and builder sentiment stayed subdued. Oil is steady into the 10:30 ET EIA release, and 10Y yields hover near ~4.0–4.1%. Read: cautious, range-biased risk tone into the decision with sensitivity to Powell’s tone and the new SEP.

Technical Analysis

Expect a compressed AM range with expansions keyed to 10:30 / 14:00 / 14:30 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP loss favors mean-reversion shorts back toward mid/previous balance; VWAP holds with improving breadth support continuation flags.
  • ES: Lean long above VWAP on higher lows + improving cumulative delta; flip short on decisive VWAP break with breadth deterioration.
  • NQ: Momentum-skewed; fade failed breakouts back to VWAP on rate/oil headline spikes; chase only with volume + tick confirmation.
  • YM: Slower rotations; use OR extremes and prior day levels.
  • RTY: Yield/energy-sensitive; favor VWAP reclaim/fail setups with tight invalidation.

Economic Calendar Insights & Trading Plan

  • Wed 8:30 ET – Housing Starts/Permits (Aug): Upside surprise → cyclicals/RTY support if yields contained; downside → defensives bid. Strategy: react, don’t pre-position; watch RTY vs ES spread into VWAP tests.
  • Wed 10:30 ET – EIA Petroleum: Inventory swings can bias inflation expectations and energy leadership. Strategy: align CL impulse with NQ/ES—CL bid + rising yields tends to pressure NQ; easing yields can buoy tech.
  • Wed 14:00 ET – FOMC Statement + SEP/dots; 14:30 ET – Powell: 25 bp cut is baseline; market cares more about dots, guidance cadence, and Powell’s tone. Strategy: let the first 1–3 minutes clear; trade the second move with confirmation (breadth + ticks + delta) and keep size modest.

Foundational Analysis

Structural supports (buybacks, passive) meet macro crosscurrents (resilient consumption, tentative factory firming, soft housing sentiment). Expect fast rotation around releases and a tech-led tape where NQ remains the risk barometer. If yields ease on a dovish Fed, duration-sensitive growth should lead; if the message skews hawkish and/or oil pops, cyclicals/energy may outperform while high-multiple tech chops.
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Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch

Highest-probability edges are rule-based around data timestamps and structure. Execute small size into prints, scale after the first reaction. Use cross-asset confirms (USTs, DXY, CL). Keep expectations for whipsaws and respect slippage. For execution performance and low-latency connectivity, keep the affiliate link visible.
  • 08:25–08:40 ET (Housing): Let first 30–60s print. Plan A: If ES/NQ spike then stall below ONH with yields rising, fade back to VWAP (tight stop above wick). Plan B: If yields drop and NQ reclaims VWAP with breadth improving, buy pullbacks toward VWAP/OR high.
  • 10:30 ET (EIA): Trade CL-led impulse: CL bid + rising UST yields = pressure on NQ; easing yields = tech relief. Look for ES/NQ VWAP reclaims/fails aligned with the CL move.
  • 14:00–14:45 ET (FOMC + Powell): Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Let the first move exhaust, then enter with confirmation (breadth + ticks + delta). Use half size; initial target 1R with partials, then trail for 2R–3R only if momentum/breadth hold.
  • Risk controls: Cut size into the Fed; widen stops slightly but reduce leverage. Avoid adding into chop; reset after invalidation rather than averaging.
  • Execution edge: Reduce latency and slippage by colocating your stack with QuantVPS.

Market Open Projections / What Could Happen After Market Open

  • Base case (50%): OR chop → VWAP hold → intraday balance into 14:00; traders fade extremes and scalp VWAP reverts.
  • Alt 1 (30%): Hawkish read (shallower cuts/dots or firm tone) → yields jump → VWAP break and NQ underperforms; favor short bounces to VWAP.
  • Alt 2 (20%): Dovish read (easier path/cadence) → yields ease → NQ leadership; buy pullbacks to VWAP/ORH with tight invalidation.

Summary

Equity futures are steady into a closely watched 2:00 ET Fed decision. August retail sales beat, manufacturing firmed slightly, and builder sentiment stayed weak; oil is steady into EIA. Trade the reaction, not the prediction: let the first move unfold, align with VWAP/OR structure, and manage risk tightly. Sources: Based on Bloomberg, Reuters, Federal Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau/HUD, NAHB, EIA, and economic calendar reviews. This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.

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