Post-Fed Day 2: Futures Rebound as Powell Confirms 25 bp Cut; Eyes on Jobless Claims & Philly Fed — Sep 18, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook
Market Overview & Sentiment News
Yesterday’s FOMC delivered a widely expected 25 bp cut and a SEP/dot path that implies further incremental easing in 2025, but Powell framed it as “risk management,” not a rush to stimulate. Markets are digesting: 10Y yields nudged higher, the dollar firmed, and U.S. equity futures are modestly green as traders pivot to today’s 8:30 ET data (jobless claims + Philly Fed) and 10:00 ET LEI. Energy is a headwind for growth-heavy indices: despite a very large crude draw, oil slipped as distillate builds raised demand concerns. Gold eased after printing a record as the stronger USD and higher yields clipped the bid. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher premarket as investors parse a 25 bp Fed cut and a cautious Powell. The dot plot points to the possibility of additional 2025 cuts, yet the tone keeps markets in a “drift-and-react” mode into this morning’s macro prints. 10Y yields sit near ~4.0–4.1% and the dollar index is firmer; gold cools after yesterday’s record, while oil is lower even after a large crude draw due to a heavy distillate build. Watch for sentiment to turn on 8:30 ET labor/manufacturing data and 10:00 ET LEI, with cross-asset cues from rates and USD dictating index leadership.Technical Analysis
Post-Fed day-two often opens with compressed action before data-driven expansions. With VIX in the mid-teens and ES/NQ bid premarket, the playbook favors VWAP-centric continuation vs. mean-reversion flips around data timestamps. Elevated tick/volume confirmation is critical; breadth improvement plus cumulative delta stacking favors trend holds, while a VWAP loss with negative breadth argues for quick reversion back into prior balance. Expect a quiet-to-choppy first hour ahead of 8:30 ET data, with range expansions keyed to 8:30 and 10:00 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP break still favors mean-reversion back toward prior balance; VWAP holds with improving breadth keep continuation flags in play.- ES (Dec): Bias long above VWAP when higher lows align with positive cumulative delta; flip short on decisive VWAP loss with deteriorating breadth/ticks.
- NQ (Dec): Momentum-skewed; chase strength only on volume + tick confirmation. Fade failed breakouts back to VWAP if yields/ USD pop on data.
- YM (Dec): Slower rotations; anchor trades to OR extremes and yesterday’s value area—ideal for fade-and-revert tactics.
- RTY (Dec): Yield/energy-sensitive; prefer VWAP reclaim/fail setups with tight invalidation, especially if oil stays soft and claims/LEI hint at slower growth.
Economic Calendar Insights & Trading Plan
The heavy lifts today are 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims (after last week’s spike) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, followed by the 10:00 ET Conference Board LEI and a 1:00 ET 10-yr TIPS reopening. Claims and Philly can tug yields and USD, which in turn tilt NQ vs ES/RTY leadership. LEI adds a macro growth read-through; TIPS supply can nudge real yields into the close.- Thu 8:30 ET – Initial Jobless Claims & Philly Fed (Sep): A cooler claims print and positive Philly surprise → yields steady/slightly up and NQ chop; hotter claims or weak Philly → growth scare, yields down, NQ relief. Strategy: Don’t pre-position; let 30–90s print, then align with VWAP reclaim/fail and cross-asset confirms (UST 10Y, DXY).
- Thu 10:00 ET – Conference Board LEI: A weaker LEI reinforces slowdown narrative and could support duration-sensitive growth; a surprise uptick tempers that. Strategy: Look for second-leg moves off 8:30 impulse; avoid chasing into LEI.
- Thu 1:00 ET – 10-yr TIPS Reopening: Auction tails/strong bid can jar real yields and tech leadership into the last two hours. Strategy: Fade post-auction knee-jerks back to VWAP only with breadth/volume confirmation.
Foundational Analysis
Macro now pits resilient nominal spending vs. softer housing/industrial momentum and a cooling labor market that pushed the Fed into a “risk management” cut. Housing starts/permits fell in August; NAHB sentiment is low but steady. Retail sales surprised to the upside, yet oil’s weakness alongside a distillate build hints at growth caution. Structurally, buybacks and ETF activity continue to underpin dips, while recent mutual fund outflows and a firmer USD/yields temper multiple expansion. The policy mix has shifted a notch looser: the Fed cut 25 bp and signaled scope for more easing in 2025, but emphasized a measured cadence given sticky inflation. August data are mixed—retail sales beat, while housing starts/permits softened and builder sentiment remains subdued. Energy signals are two-sided: a large crude draw but falling prices as distillate inventories climb. Structural supports (buybacks, passive/ETF flows) remain constructive, even as weekly fund flow volatility and a firmer dollar/yields present a valuation headwind for high-multiple tech. Expect fast factor rotation as prints hit, with NQ remaining the risk barometer and RTY sensitive to rates/energy.Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch
Post-event, liquidity is decent but prone to headline jolts at set times. The highest-probability edges cluster around 8:30/10:00/13:00 ET. Cross-asset confirms (USTs, DXY, CL) remain essential. Highest-probability edges are rule-based around timestamps and structure. Execute small size into prints; scale only after the first reaction. Use cross-asset confirms (10Y, DXY, CL). Keep expectations for whipsaws and respect slippage. For execution performance and low-latency connectivity, keep the affiliate link visible.- 08:29–08:40 ET (Claims + Philly): Let first 30–60s print. Plan A: If ES/NQ spike but stall below ONH with yields/USD rising, fade back to VWAP (tight stop above wick). Plan B: If yields/ USD slip and NQ reclaims VWAP with breadth improving, buy pullbacks toward VWAP/OR high.
- 09:35–10:05 ET (Cash Open → LEI): Expect opening range discovery, then an LEI-catalyzed second move. Prefer continuation only with ticks + delta + breadth alignment.
- 13:00–14:00 ET (10-yr TIPS Auction Aftermath): Watch real-yield impulse. If tech wobbles on higher reals, fade NQ pops back to VWAP; if reals ease, look for NQ continuation with tight invalidation.
- Risk controls: Half-size on data; widen stops slightly but reduce leverage. Avoid adding into chop; reset after invalidation rather than averaging.
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Market Open Projections / What Could Happen After Market Open
With a measured Fed cut and mixed macro, odds favor range behavior into data, followed by directional tests keyed to yields/USD. Oil softness and a strong USD can pressure NQ on strength; a softer USD/yields bid helps growth.- Base case (50%): OR chop → VWAP hold → balanced trade into 10:00; second move after LEI; afternoon drift into 13:00 TIPS auction, then mild trend continuation if reals cooperate.
- Alt 1 (30%): Growth-scare read (weak claims/Philly or softer LEI) → yields down/USD slips → NQ leadership; buy pullbacks to VWAP/ORH with tight invalidation.
- Alt 2 (20%): Re-acceleration read (firmer claims/Philly or LEI) → yields/USD up → NQ underperforms; favor fading bounces to VWAP; rotate to cyclicals/energy if oil stabilizes.