Equity Futures Outlook for Thursday, September 25, 2025 Actionable bias and setups for ES, NQ, YM, RTY ahead of tomorrow’s session 1. Market Recap (Heading into Thursday) Use a Virtual Private Server:   With QuantVPS , you can execute trades with a 1 ms latency. Sign up here! U.S. equities pulled back modestly on Wednesday. The S&P 500 closed down ~0.3% to 6,637.97 (–18.95 pts)   , the Dow fell ~0.4%   , and the Russell 2000 underperformed with a ~0.9% drop   . The retreat followed comments from Fed Chair Powell warning that equity valuations looked “fairly highly valued,” underscoring lingering uncertainty around the timing of rate moves.   Overnight, equity futures are modestly higher, suggesting some resilience into Thursday’s open.   Key drivers: bond yields are pushing upward, and indices remain near all-time highs—any weakness could trigger pullbacks. 2. Macro & Sentiment Drivers to Watch Interest Rates & Yields ...

Post-Fed Day 2: Futures Rebound as Powell Confirms 25 bp Cut; Eyes on Jobless Claims & Philly Fed — Sep 18, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News Yesterday’s FOMC delivered a widely expected 25 bp cut and a SEP/dot path that implies further incremental easing in 2025, but Powell framed it as “risk management,” not a rush to stimulate. Markets are digesting: 10Y yields nudged higher, the dollar firmed, and U.S. equity futures are modestly green as traders pivot to today’s 8:30 ET data (jobless claims + Philly Fed) and 10:00 ET LEI. Energy is a headwind for growth-heavy indices: despite a very large crude draw, oil slipped as distillate builds raised demand concerns. Gold eased after printing a record as the stronger USD and higher yields clipped the bid. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher premarket as investors parse a 25 bp Fed cut and a cautious Powell. The dot plot points to the possibility of additional 2025 cuts, yet the tone kee...

Fed Decision Day: Futures Flat as Retail Sales Beat, IP Firms, HMI Steady — Sep 17, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. equity index futures trade near flat into the FOMC (statement 2:00 ET; Powell 2:30 ET). August retail sales beat keeps growth signals alive as yesterday’s IP firmed at the margin and builder sentiment stayed subdued. Oil is steady into the 10:30 ET EIA release, and 10Y yields hover near ~4.0–4.1%. Read: cautious, range-biased risk tone into the decision with sensitivity to Powell’s tone and the new SEP. Technical Analysis Expect a compressed AM range with expansions keyed to 10:30 / 14:00 / 14:30 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP loss favors mean-reversion shorts back toward mid/previous balance; VWAP holds with improving breadth support continuation flags. ES: Lean long above VWAP on higher lows + improving cumulative delta; flip short on decisive VWAP break with breadth deterioration. NQ: Momentum-skewed;...

Futures Poised for Fed Week: Empire State Miss, Bills Auctions, Oil Bid — Sep 15, 2025 Trading Blueprint Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. equity index futures enter Fed week with a mild positive bias but tight ranges. The September Empire State Manufacturing Index came in below expectations, nudging growth sentiment softer while keeping the easing case intact. Crude is bid on supply-risk headlines tied to Russian infrastructure, sustaining energy-linked inflows and keeping inflation watchers alert. Separately, U.S.–China discussions add tape-bomb risk for mega-cap tech. Bottom line: risk tone constructive yet headline-sensitive into Wednesday’s policy statement and press conference. Futures near flat/up small: Positioning is cautious ahead of the Fed; breadth and rate path expectations will dictate whether early strength sticks. Empire State miss: The softer print cools the growth pulse and subtly reinforces the case for incremental policy easing. Oi...

Market Overview & Sentiment News Global markets take a breather: World equities pulled back slightly from record highs, with the STOXX 600 down around 0.4% as British bank stocks slid and political risks in France weighed. MSCI’s global index remains near peaks, signalling underlying resilience. Fed cut bets intensify: Fed Governor Christopher Waller repeated his call for a September rate cut and traders now price roughly an 85% chance of a 25‑bp move. The legal fight over former President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook has thrust central‑bank independence into the spotlight. Gold and dollar dynamics: Gold is holding near $3,414 /oz after gaining 3.6% in August, while the U.S. dollar is on track for a roughly 2% monthly drop as yields hover just above two‑week lows. A tame PCE print would keep real rates anchored and support risk assets. Oil and commodities: Brent crude trades around $68 and WTI near $64 as traders balance fading U.S. su...

Pre‑Nvidia Playbook: Futures Hold Firm as Fed Independence Tested — August 27 Trading Blueprint Market Overview & Sentiment News Equity futures steady ahead of AI bellwether: U.S. index futures were essentially flat as traders awaited Nvidia’s after‑hours earnings, which are expected to test the AI‑driven rally. Reuters noted Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq E‑mini contracts up around 0.05%, with options markets implying an approximately $260 billion swing in Nvidia’s market value. Investors are cautious given lofty tech valuations and recent warnings about a potential AI bubble. Fed independence questioned: Market volatility this week has centred on former President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising uncertainty over the Fed’s independence. Gold rallied on the headline, but prices eased overnight as the dollar firmed and traders took profits. Rates expectations skew dovish: Markets are pricing an 87% chance of a 25‑basis‑...

One System, Endless Plays: ICT-Style Inversion/Breaker Strategy One System, Endless Plays One Setup For Life In the ever-evolving world of futures, FX and equity index trading, finding a single, repeatable setup that works across instruments and timeframes can be a game-changer. The “One System, Endless Plays” strategy combines institutional liquidity sweeps, key time-of-day filters, and two layers of entry confirmation to help you trade with confidence, discipline and a clear edge. Whether you’re demo-testing or scaling live size, this blog will walk you step-by-step through the definitions, rules, and risk management you need to make this your “one setup for life.” 1. Key Definitions Macro Time Window What it is: Short bursts of trading time when volume and participation spike—think of them as “rush-hour” in the markets. Why it matters: High volume means sharper, more predictable stop-hunts a...

Budget Beats & Oil Alerts: Your July 11 Equity Futures Blueprint Market Overview & Sentiment News Equity futures hold steady as the US Monthly Budget Statement shows a narrower-than-expected $316B deficit, lifting risk appetite (Source: Reuters). Crude oil slips on a 7.1M barrel API inventory build, putting pressure on energy futures (Source: Bloomberg). Asian markets rally on China’s stronger-than-forecast export data, boosting global risk sentiment ahead of US open (Source: CNBC). Tech remains in focus: Nvidia moderates after slight profit-taking post-earnings, while AI chip names trade mixed (Source: The Wall Street Journal). US Treasury yields ease from 4.45% peaks, underpinning bond-sensitive sectors in futures (Source: Financial Times). Economic Calendar Analysis & Trading Plan The Trading Economics calendar for July 11 highlights one high-impact event at 02:00 PM ET : the US Monthly Budget Statement. A narrower-than-expe...

Tariff Tussle & Tech Triumph: Your July 10 Equity Futures Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. stock futures were broadly flat premarket, with S&P 500 and Dow futures near unchanged and Nasdaq futures up slightly under 0.1% as markets digest mixed data and headlines. President Trump’s announcement of 50% reciprocal tariffs on copper and Brazilian imports weighed on broad-market sentiment, adding a layer of geopolitical risk. Nvidia’s surge to a historic $4 trillion market cap continues to propel tech-driven momentum in equity futures. Delta Air Lines jumped 12% premarket on stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings and raised full-year guidance, boosting airline-linked futures. WK Kellogg spiked over 50% amid takeover chatter by Ferrero, fueling M&A-driven moves in consumer staples futures. Bitcoin hovered near $109,000 and 10-year Treasury yields held around 4.4%, reflecting a nuanced risk environment. Economic Events ...

Tech Surge & Tariff Jitters: Your July 09 Equity Futures Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. S&P 500 futures +0.16%, Dow futures +0.18%, Nasdaq futures +0.20% premarket on modest gains amid trade-policy headlines and Fed minutes anticipation. President Trump’s tariff letters and proposed copper tariffs weigh on sentiment, but equity futures remain resilient ahead of an August 1 deadline. NVIDIA nears a $4 trillion market cap, up 1.2% premarket, fueling tech-driven futures strength. Starbucks-linked M&A chatter lifts consumer-discretionary futures, with SBUX +1.8% premarket. Merck’s $10 billion takeover of Verona Pharma sparks biotech and health-care futures turbulence. AES Corp. jumps 14.5% premarket on sale rumors, underpinning energy and industrial futures. Bitcoin around $109 000 and 10‑year Treasury yields near 4.41% inform mixed risk-appetite dynamics. Economic Events & Calendar 07:00 AM E...