Morning Pre-Market Analysis 13 May 2025

Market Overview and Sentiment News

U.S. stock futures jumped on Tuesday as investors cheered a newly agreed 90-day suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China, boosting S&P 500 futures by 1.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures by nearly 2% . Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. note climbing to approximately 4.45% as traders assessed the impact of tariff relief on inflation prospects and Federal Reserve policy . Asian equities attracted a net $6.22 billion in foreign investment through May 12, marking the first inflows since early January amid optimism over eased trade tensions , and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has surged about 18% since April 7 on the back of the temporary tariff pause . In Europe, futures on the STOXX Europe 600 edged up 0.3%, powered by gains in cyclicals and financials ahead of key PMI readings and Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment survey . Oil prices were modestly lower, with Brent crude trading near $64.70 per barrel as markets weighed the trade developments against concerns over global demand . Gold rebounded to a six-week high around $2,350 per ounce, as safe-haven buying returned amid uncertainty over the durability of the trade truce . The U.S. dollar index hovered near 104.05, after drifting lower on the prospect of reduced bilateral tensions and more modest expectations for Fed easing by year-end . Bitcoin remained firm above $100,000, underscoring resilience in crypto markets despite mixed equity sentiment . VIX futures dipped to a one-week low near 18.4, signaling reduced investor anxiety ahead of the inflation data . Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the April Consumer Price Index, pointing to potential inflationary pressures driven by recent tariff adjustments . Washington Post coverage highlighted that while the tariff pause offers a welcome reprieve, many details of a lasting agreement remain undecided, leaving markets wary of a re-escalation . MarketWatch analysts noted that headline CPI is expected to rise 0.2%, with core CPI up about 0.3%, as tariff costs filter into consumer prices . Investor’s Business Daily reported that Monday’s surge saw the Dow climb 2.8%, the S&P advance 3.3%, and the Nasdaq jump 4.4%, though futures pulled back slightly in overnight trading. Traders are now focused on tomorrow’s Producer Price Index due Wednesday for further insight into inflation trends and Fed policy direction . In all, the truce has lifted a technical weight off markets, but volatility around key data releases and the details of a permanent trade deal could reintroduce swings in sentiment

Technical Analysis Insight

Prices as of 13 May 0500EST

• ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures): Trading near 5,841, RSI(14) ~44.97, MACD slightly negative and flattening; price sitting at the 8- and 21-period EMAs (5,841–5,843) below VWAP (5,847) and within the lower Bollinger Band — watch for a rebound above the 21-period EMA targeting 5,851; failure below 5,838 could test the 5,805 pivot.
• NQ (E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures): Trading near 20,844, RSI ~46, MACD below signal on a negative histogram; price below both EMAs (8 EMA 20,846; 21 EMA 20,851) and VWAP (20,872), trading near the mid‑BB — key levels are resistance at 20,882 and support at 20,818.
• YM (E-mini Dow futures): Trading near 42,401, RSI ~49.6, MACD positive but flat; price between the 8 EMA (42,414) and 21 EMA (42,404), just below VWAP (42,418) and within Bollinger Bands — look for a break above the 42,455 pivot to resume upside, with support at BB lower (42,375) and the 42,344 pivot.
• RTY (E-mini Russell 2000 futures): Trading near 2,093.4, RSI ~55.9, MACD above the signal line with a positive histogram; price above the 8 EMA (2,092.36), 21 EMA (2,091.43), and VWAP (2,092.55), touching the upper BB — bullish momentum aims for 2,105, with support at the EMA band (~2,091) and BB mid.

Technical Summary: After intra‑day highs (ES 5,876; NQ 20,996), momentum cooled into neutral RSI ranges while RTY maintains the strongest bullish bias and YM consolidates. Key levels to watch are ES 5,851/5,838, NQ 20,882/20,818, YM 42,455/42,375, and RTY 2,105/2,091. Pullbacks to EMAs offer re-entry points; breakouts above VWAP or BB mids signal a resumption of trend, with stops placed just beyond immediate support bands.

Foundational Analysis

Heading into Tuesday’s open, equity futures are influenced by fresh corporate earnings, key macro readings, and monetary policy signals. Below is the foundational backdrop for each contract:

• ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures): Q1 earnings season saw ~68% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates and 60% topping revenue forecasts, demonstrating large-cap resilience. U.S. Q1 GDP advanced 1.3% annualized, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 55.8, underscoring service-sector strength. Elevated share buyback announcements and University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 67.4 bolster the equity demand outlook.
• NQ (E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures): Tech giants delivered mixed Q1 results, with AI leaders like Nvidia reporting 20% revenue growth but expressing margin caution. U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields climbed to 4.6% after hawkish Fed minutes, pressuring high‑multiple names. Continued enterprise AI spending and cloud capex provide medium‑term support.
• RTY (E-mini Russell 2000 futures): Small caps lagged as tighter bank lending standards and higher funding costs weighed on regional firms. However, April retail sales rose 0.5% MoM and regional Fed manufacturing indexes exceeded forecasts, suggesting pockets of strength. Narrowing credit spreads have gradually improved risk sentiment.
• YM (E-mini Dow futures): Dow blue‑chips, especially industrials and financials, reported solid Q1 beats—Caterpillar and JPMorgan led the charge. March durable goods orders increased 1.1% MoM, and bipartisan infrastructure talks support cyclicals. A steeper yield curve benefits banks, while stable commodity prices underpin industrial margins.

Overall, strong Q1 earnings, robust service‑sector data, and targeted fiscal initiatives create a supportive backdrop for equity futures, though traders should watch upcoming CPI, PPI, and Fed speakers for potential volatility spikes.

Upcoming Economic and Trading Events

• Tuesday, May 13 — U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Apr MoM/YoY): If headline or core CPI comes in below consensus (MoM ≤ 0.3%), equity futures may rally as inflation pressures ease; if above consensus, futures could sell off on hawkish Fed expectations.
• Tuesday, May 13 — White House tariff cut announcement: New executive order cutting China tariff from 120% to 54% effective May 14; bullish for equity futures on reduced trade costs; bearish if details reveal uncertainties.
• Wednesday, May 14 — U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) (Apr MoM): PPI below forecast (≤ 0.2% MoM) may lift futures as wholesale inflation cools; a hotter print could weigh on futures amid tighter Fed outlook.
• Wednesday, May 14 — FOMC Minutes release (Apr meeting): Dovish minutes (emphasis on uncertainty and delaying rate moves) likely boost futures; hawkish language raises rate concerns and pressures futures.
• Thursday, May 15 — U.S. Retail Sales (Apr MoM): Stronger-than-expected retail sales (> +0.9% MoM) viewed as bullish for futures; weaker sales could trigger risk-off moves.
• Thursday, May 15 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May prelim): A reading above consensus (~ 68) may support futures by signaling consumer confidence; a miss could dampen sentiment.
• Friday, May 16 — U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits (Apr): Upside surprise (starts > 1.36 M, permits > 1.48 M units) should bolster equity futures via growth optimism; downside risk if data disappoint.
• Friday, May 16 — U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Apr): Strong factory output (> +0.3% MoM) and higher utilization may underpin futures; a contraction could weigh on cyclicals.

Traders should monitor these high-impact events for volatility spikes and directional cues in ES, NQ, RTY, and YM futures heading into next week.

Key Takeaways

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