Fed Decision Eve: Retail Sales & Industrial Production Set the Tone — Sep 16, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook Market Overview & Sentiment News U.S. equity index futures are modestly green into a front-loaded data day as traders position for a widely expected 25 bp Fed cut on Wednesday (statement 2:00 ET; press conference follows). Early U.S. data—Retail Sales (8:30), Industrial Production (9:15), and NAHB HMI (10:00)—will steer intraday leadership and the path of yields into the decision. Bonds lean duration-positive on cut odds while crude’s firm tone keeps inflation watchers alert. Net read: constructive but data-sensitive risk tone into the Fed. Use a Virtual Private Server:   With QuantVPS , you can execute trades with a 1 ms latency. Sign up here! Technical Analysis Price discovery likely builds a morning range with expansions keyed to 8:30 / 9:15 / 10:00 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP loss favors mean-reversion shorts back toward mid/previous bal...

Jackson Hole Playbook: Futures Rip Into Powell — August 22 Trading Blueprint Market Overview & Sentiment News Futures rip into Powell: After a sharp pre‑market air‑pocket, ES, NQ, YM and RTY all staged a V‑reversal and reclaimed VWAP , basing near session highs ahead of Chair Powell’s 10:00 ET Jackson Hole remarks. Breadth and volume improved on the rebound, raising the odds of a trend‑day if opening‑range highs hold. Rates in focus, volatility likely: With the policy path in the spotlight, rate and dollar swings are the key cross‑asset drivers today. A dovish tilt favors duration and growth; a hawkish tone pressures long duration and cyclicals. Oil churns, energy watch: Crude remains choppy and mostly below session VWAP, with attention on the 1:00 ET Baker Hughes rig count for a potential afternoon impulse. Gold mixed into the event: GC is range‑bound and whippy around VWAP as traders trim hedges into the speech; expect two‑way risk and fast reversa...

Futures Fervor: Durable Goods Slump Meets GDP Beat — June 26, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News Asia & Europe: Nikkei +0.1%, Shanghai +0.2%, DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.3% on mixed economic cues ahead of US data. US Equity Futures: ES1! +0.30%, NQ1! +0.50%, YM1! +0.20%, RTY1! +0.40% as traders digest a sharp durable goods decline and stronger-than-expected GDP. Sector Buzz: Industrials and tech under pressure early on durable goods miss; financials and homebuilders perk up on GDP upside and strong corporate profits. Energy & Metals: Crude tests VWAP support at $65.00 after modest oil draw; gold holds tight between 3,350–3,360 amid cautious risk sentiment. Impact: The tug-of-war between weak manufacturing orders and robust GDP has created range-bound opportunities; focus on sector rotation from defensives into cyclicals around key VWAP levels. Technical Analysis ES Footprint & Delta: Recent footprint shows a persistent sell...

Fed in Focus: Housing Data & Oil Draw Steer Futures Rally — June 25, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News Overnight Markets: Asia and Europe traded mixed ahead of Fed testimony—Nikkei -0.2%, DAX -0.3%; London’s FTSE +0.1% on robust earnings. U.S. Equity Futures: ES1! +0.25%, NQ1! +0.45%, YM1! +0.15%, RTY1! +0.35% on anticipation of housing data and Fed commentary. Housing & Credit: MBA 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.88%, New Home Sales surged +10.9% MoM—boosting homebuilder and regional bank futures. Energy & Commodities: EIA reported a 11.47M-barrel crude draw and a 0.21M-barrel gasoline build—CL1! testing VWAP support, GC1! holding in a tight range. Impact: Housing strength and a large oil draw underpin sector rotation into homebuilders and energy; Fed testimony looms as the catalyst for broad-market moves around VWAP levels. Technical Analysis ES Footprint & Delta: Early sell imbalance of –85 delta at 6130 wa...

Ceasefire Rally: VWAP, Fed Testimony & Housing Data on Deck June 24, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News Overnight Markets: Asia and Europe surged on Mideast ceasefire hopes—Japan’s Nikkei +1.1%, Germany’s DAX +1.8% after Trump announced an Israel-Iran truce. U.S. Equity Futures: ES1! +0.9%, NQ1! +1.15%, YM1! +0.8%, RTY1! +1.0% on a broad risk‑on move into growth names. Oil & Commodities: WTI crude slid ~3% to $66.80 on eased supply fears; gold dipped 1.7% to $3,338 amid weaker safe-haven demand. Bond Yields & FX: 10‑year UST yield eased to 4.12%; DXY down 0.3%; EUR/USD +0.4%; USD/JPY -2% ahead of Fed testimony. Impact: Mixed global cues and rising yields are keeping futures on edge—VWAP levels and footprint clusters will be key for spotting intraday reversals and breakouts. Technical Analysis ES Footprint & Delta: Early session ES1! showed a sell imbalance of -85 delta at 6130, followed by aggressive buyer abso...

Morning Momentum: VWAP, Yields & Fed on Deck June 18, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News Overnight Markets: Tokyo stocks rose after Japan’s PMI beat forecasts; China flat ahead of industrial output data; Europe mixed on bank earnings. U.S. Equity Futures: ES down 0.1%, NQ -0.2% on rising Treasury yields; investors await Fed decision; energy futures outperformed on oil draw. Oil & Commodities: WTI crude jumped 1.3% on a surprise EIA draw; gold steadied near $1,930 as the dollar eased. Bond Yields: 10‑year UST yield climbed to 4.15% after hawkish Fed commentary; higher yields pressuring growth stocks. Impact: Mixed global cues and rising yields are keeping futures on edge—VWAP levels and footprint clusters will be key for spotting intraday reversals and breakouts. Technical Analysis ES Footprint & Delta: This morning's volume footprint shows an initial sell imbalance (delta -79) on ES1! at 6045, followed by absor...

Opening Bell Edge: VWAP Footprints & Retail Sales Spotlight By Alex | June 17, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News Overnight Markets: Nikkei +0.5% led by tech gains; Shanghai flat ahead of China industrial data; European futures modestly higher on oil draw expectations. U.S. Equities Futures: ES and NQ up ~0.1%, YM flat; investors cautious ahead of June retail sales and import/export price reports at 8:30 AM. Oil & Commodities: API reports -0.6 M barrel draw, lifting CL futures toward $71.50; gold consolidates near $1,925 amid muted safe-haven demand. Bond Yields: 10‑year UST yield steady at 4.10%; Fed speakers remain quiet until PPI on Thursday, keeping rates outlook range-bound. Impact: Markets tracking macro calendar over headlines—VWAP baselines and footprint clusters will guide intraday entries and exits. Foundational Analysis Monetary Policy: Fed funds at 5.25–5.50%; mixed PPI and CPI readings suggest Fed waits fo...

Your June 12 Equity Futures Playbook By Alex | June 12, 2025 Market Overview & Sentiment News US CPI Meets Expectations: May CPI at 0.1% MoM keeps inflation in check, prompting modest gains in ES and NQ futures. Fed Speak: Fed Chair Powell’s remarks argue for patience on rate cuts, driving mixed reactions—short-term pullbacks in YM but stability in CL. Tech Earnings: Strong beats from Apple and Microsoft boost NQ futures by 0.8%, rotating gains into semis and software names. Oil Inventory: API reports a 0.37M barrel draw, lifting CL toward $67.50 and adding bullish momentum to energy complex. Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions ease after OPEC+ comments, capping further spikes in GC despite safe-haven demand. Impact: Equity futures react to inflation and earnings beats—lean into longs on NQ/ES dips to VWAP, fade YM rallies on dovish Fed takes, and keep an eye on CL for continuation above $67.40. Foundational Analysis Mon...

Your June 10 Equity Futures Playbook By Alex | June 10, 2025 Market Overview Technical Analysis Foundational Analysis Economic Events Scalper Strategy Post-Open Outlook Summary Market Overview and Sentiment News US-China Trade Talks Resumption: Futures tread water as the second day of negotiations in London shows cautious optimism on semiconductors and rare earths impacting tech and industrial futures. WWDC AI Update Reaction: Apple dipped 1% after modest AI announcements, while Meta formed a new “superintelligence group,” stirring tech sector rotation in NQ futures. Energy & Commodities: Oil futures up ahead of API data; WTI testing $65 and CL futures eye upper VWAP bands. Gold gains on geopolitical caution, pressuring yield-sensitive indices. Fed Minutes Ahead: All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes; hawkish language could lift Treasury yield...

Jobs Watch: Your June 09 Equity Futures Playbook Market Overview and Sentiment News Mixed Asia Trade After China PMI Surprise: Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in May, weighing on MSCI Asia ex-Japan and underscoring slowing global demand. Equity futures in the U.S. opened flat on this signal, keeping NQ and ES in a narrow range. Tech Earnings Drive Sentiment: Microsoft topped estimates with cloud revenue growth, while Intel missed on PC sales. This divergence is keeping Nasdaq futures bidirectional and adding a tilt toward large-cap tech long/short pair trades. Oil Inventories and OPEC Watch: API reported a 2.4 M barrel build on Friday, pushing WTI lower to $64.30. Energy-related futures in RTY and sector ETFs are pressured as traders await formal EIA data at 10:30 AM. Fed Minutes Preview: Markets brace for Wednesday’s Fed Open Market Committee minutes at 2 PM ET. A hawkish tilt in the minutes could lift Treasury yields and pressure rate-sensitive s...

Jobs Watch: Your June 05 Equity Futures Playbook Market Overview and Sentiment News Futures Mixed Ahead of Jobs Report: U.S. equity futures are trading in a narrow range as investors position ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls release at 8:30 AM ET. After yesterday’s ADP and JOLTs showed mixed hiring signals, the market is focused on whether the official jobs number will reinforce signs of slowing labor momentum or surprise with upside strength. Trade Tensions and Tariffs Persist: New tariffs on imported steel and aluminum took effect yesterday, and discussions between Washington and its major trading partners remain unresolved. Ongoing tariff angst is keeping technology and manufacturing stocks on edge, limiting upside in index futures. Tech Earnings in Focus: Mixed earnings from leading tech companies are weighing on Nasdaq futures (NQ), with MongoDB jumping nearly 15% on strong results even as Tesla and Palantir test key support levels amid weaker-than-expe...