Pre-Market Pulse: Equity Futures Rally on Tariff Reprieve and Tech Breakouts 29 May

May 29, 2025

Market Overview and Sentiment News

Futures Rally on Tariff Ruling: U.S. E‑mini Dow futures jumped 1.31%, S&P 500 futures rose 1.73%, and Nasdaq futures added 2.15% after a federal court blocked most of former President Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Tech Stocks Lead Gains: Nvidia shares surged 5.4% on Q1 revenue beats, powering tech-heavy futures; Salesforce also climbed 2.3% on an upgraded outlook, while HP fell 8.5% on weaker guidance.
Dollar Strengthens: The U.S. dollar gained ground after the tariff decision, pressuring commodities and USD‑sensitive futures.
Asian Markets Upbeat: Asian equities climbed on relief that sweeping trade measures were halted, boosting global sentiment.
Fed Minutes Caution: FOMC minutes flagged rising inflation and bond volatility risks, injecting caution into short‑term strategies .
Safe‑Haven Status Concern: Fed officials worried U.S. assets could lose their safe‑haven appeal amid policy uncertainty.
Pre‑Market Earnings: Companies like RBC, Colgate‑Palmolive, and Best Buy report before open, sparking sector rotations.
Awaiting Data: Traders await Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims this morning, creating event‑driven volatility risk .
Energy Futures Buoyant: Oil prices rose on tariff relief, supporting energy‑linked futures.

Impact: The sudden tariff reprieve and strong tech earnings have supercharged equity futures, but Fed‑driven caution and upcoming economic prints warrant disciplined risk control.

Technical Analysis Insight

Prices from 07:00 this morning

YM (E-mini Dow Jones 30): Broke above VWAP (~42,300) and upper mid‑BB, then retraced toward a high‑volume node around 42,200. MACD histogram is contracting after a bullish surge, and RSI has rolled over from overbought (~68), signaling waning momentum. Expect pullback entries on dips to VWAP or volume area support, with stops below 42,150.
ES (E-mini S&P 500): Popped from 5,900 to 5,980, trading near the upper BB. Recent MACD bars are shrinking and RSI is falling from 70, suggesting overextension. ATR is tapering. Look for shallow declines into VWAP (~5,935) for trend continuation, and tighten stops near mid‑BB.
RTY (E-mini Russell 2000): Sent uptrend past VWAP (~2,085) to 2,128 before a pullback to the volume‑profile point of control near 2,085. MACD shows momentum cooling but remains above zero, RSI holding around 60. Fade minor drops into VWAP for continuation trades, managing risk below 2,075.
NQ (E-mini NASDAQ 100): Extended to 21,840, then retraced toward VWAP (~21,540). MACD histogram contracting from peak, RSI slipping from ~69, and ATR normalizing. Gauge support at VWAP and mid‑BB; consider long entries on stabilized pullbacks, with profit targets near recent highs.

Today’s Technical Take: The broad equity futures rally is showing signs of temporary exhaustion as momentum indicators cool. Tactically, scale into pullbacks toward VWAP and volume‑profile support for continuation plays, and monitor MACD/RSI for confirming signals before adding to positions.

Foundational Analysis

Tariff Ruling Relief: Blocking of emergency-power tariffs reduces global trade tensions, underpinning equity sentiment.
Fed Minutes Insights: Minutes highlighted inflationary pressures from tariffs and potential bond market disruptions, suggesting Fed caution ahead.
Policy Uncertainty: Officials were split on long-term tariff impacts, underscoring persistent economic uncertainty.
Tech Earnings Momentum: Strong beats and raised guidance from Nvidia and Salesforce provide a bullish catalyst for growth‑oriented futures.
Commodity Influence: Rising oil prices post‑tariff relief suggest energy sector futures may see increased volatility.

Economic and Trading Events This Week

May 28 — FOMC Minutes (02:00 PM ET): Expect firm language on rate path; knee‑jerk volatility likely. Use VWAP to fade overreactions.
May 28 — API Crude Stocks (04:30 PM ET): Sharp draws could lift energy names and boost RTY; plan breakout scalps into high volume levels.
May 29 — GDP 2nd Est QoQ Q1 (08:30 AM ET): 2.4% print sharply above consensus, bullish for cyclicals; anticipate gap‑fill rallies and trend entries on pullbacks to VWAP.
May 29 — Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 AM ET): Claims around 227K could reinforce labor resilience; positive surprise may fuel equities; manage risk on false breakouts.
May 29 — Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): A rebound may spur housing‑linked sectors; fade exaggerated moves and target mid‑BB support.
May 29 — EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks (12:00 PM ET): Builds or draws can swing energy futures; use tight stops and watch RTY.
May 30 — Core PCE & Income/Spending (08:30 AM ET): Inflation and consumer data will set Fed bias; high prints could trigger two‑sided swings—reduce size around releases.
May 30 — Chicago PMI & Michigan Sentiment (09:45/10:00 AM ET): Readings below forecasts may pressure mid‑caps; use VWAP fades for relief moves.
June 02 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): A sub‑50 print (~48.7) likely bearish for industrials and RTY; consider short setups into upper BB.

Trader Takeaway: This week’s mix of Fed minutes, growth, labor, and inventory data creates multiple high‑impact windows. Stay nimble—scale in on pullbacks, tighten stops into data, and align entries with VWAP and Bollinger Bands to manage risk around volatility spikes.

Today's Strategy for Scalpers and What to Watch For

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Tariff Ruling Scalps: Quick momentum runs in YM and ES on tariff‑news spikes; enter on two‑tick pullbacks for 1–2 tick gains.
Tech Momentum Plays: Ride Nvidia‑led NQ push; fade micro‑reversals above key VWAP levels.
Bond‑Driven Moves: Monitor T‑note volatility around Fed commentary; scalp futures on yield‑induced spread changes .
Data‑Driven Fade: Fade initial reactions to GDP and jobless claims; use VWAP and mid‑BB for entry zones .

What Could Happen After Market Open

Gap Fill to VWAP: Early profit‑taking on tariff rally may retrace futures back to VWAP levels.
Data Spike Volatility: GDP and jobless claims at 08:30 AM ET could trigger two‑sided swings; manage size around release .
Extended Tech Moves: Continued follow‑through on Nvidia’s earnings may carry NQ into new highs or fade at resistance.
Yield‑Driven Reversal: Intraday bond market shifts could provoke pullbacks in futures; use mid‑BB as stop‑run threshold.

Summary

Equity futures opened lower on hawkish Fed minutes and higher yields, partially offset by NVIDIA’s strong earnings and a surprise China PMI uptick. Oil inventory draws underpinned energy contracts, while US fiscal risks and mixed global growth kept volatility elevated. Tactically, fade rallies to VWAP, trade the tech and energy catalysts, and manage tight stops into key data. Maintain a cautious-neutral stance, balancing rate-driven sell-offs with targeted event-driven scalps.

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