Fed in Focus: Housing Data & Oil Draw Steer Futures Rally — June 25, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Overnight Markets: Asia and Europe traded mixed ahead of Fed testimony—Nikkei -0.2%, DAX -0.3%; London’s FTSE +0.1% on robust earnings.
• U.S. Equity Futures: ES1! +0.25%, NQ1! +0.45%, YM1! +0.15%, RTY1! +0.35% on anticipation of housing data and Fed commentary.
• Housing & Credit: MBA 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.88%, New Home Sales surged +10.9% MoM—boosting homebuilder and regional bank futures.
• Energy & Commodities: EIA reported a 11.47M-barrel crude draw and a 0.21M-barrel gasoline build—CL1! testing VWAP support, GC1! holding in a tight range.

Impact: Housing strength and a large oil draw underpin sector rotation into homebuilders and energy; Fed testimony looms as the catalyst for broad-market moves around VWAP levels.

Technical Analysis

• ES Footprint & Delta: Early sell imbalance of –85 delta at 6130 was absorbed with aggressive bids at 6122. Reclaiming the 6150 VWAP opens the door for a mean-reversion rally into mid-day. Watch for follow-through long flow on pullbacks to VWAP.
• NQ Footprint & Delta: Strong +150 delta clusters around 22,350 line up with the volume‐profile POC. Tech momentum is intact—breakout above 22,380 should trigger a fresh leg higher, with stops pushed above today’s high.
• CL Footprint & Delta: Persistent selling (–46 delta at $64.80) held until the EIA draw; now look for a retest of the $65.00 VWAP as energy bulls step in. A sustained move back above VWAP would signal a reversal of the morning’s pullback.
• GC Footprint & Delta: Mixed delta signatures between 3,330–3,340 with VWAP support at 3,330. Gold remains in a tight range—ideal for intra-range fade strategies until a clear breakout above 3,342 or breakdown below 3,328.
• YM & RTY Dynamics: YM1! shows neutral delta around 43,150–43,200, indicating consolidation—lean into small range scalps between VWAP bands. RTY1! posted mild absorption (–23 delta then +33) around 2,177; small-caps are poised for resilience on dips, so look for long entries on pullbacks near VWAP.
• Broad VWAP & OBV Trends: All major futures are gravitating toward their VWAPs with flattening OBV—directional conviction is limited until after Powell. Use VWAP touchpoints and footprint delta clusters to time high-probability entries around these key levels.

Economic Events Analysis

• 07:00 AM – US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (JUN/20): 6.88% vs 6.84% prior – a slight uptick in borrowing costs could temper strength in housing-related names early in the session. fileciteturn0file0
• 10:00 AM – Fed Chair Powell Testimony: Key volatility window—expect rapid swings around rate-outlook commentary; fade any extreme moves beyond VWAP initially.
• 10:00 AM – US New Home Sales (MAY): 0.743 M vs 0.69 M expected (+10.9% MoM) – stronger residential housing demand underpins homebuilder & regional bank stocks; anticipate sector outperformance into the late morning. fileciteturn0file0
• 10:30 AM – EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (JUN/20): –11.473 M vs –0.6 M consensus – a blockbuster draw that supports energy futures; look for CL1! to test VWAP support then attempt a rebound toward $65.20. fileciteturn0file0
• 10:30 AM – EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (JUN/20): +0.209 M vs –0.5 M prior – modest build may cap near-term gasoline crack spread strength, but energy momentum should prevail on the crude draw. fileciteturn0file0

Foundational Analysis

• Fed Outlook: Jerome Powell testifies at 10:00 AM—markets will gauge any shift on rate path and taper-talk.
• Housing Data: MBA mortgage rate at 6.88% and New Home Sales at 0.743 M (+10.9% MoM) highlight consumer resilience in housing.
• Oil Inventories: EIA crude draw of 11.47 M barrels supports energy futures; gasoline build may limit olefin spreads.
• Sector Positioning: Tech momentum keeps NQ bid; homebuilders and regional banks rally; energy stabilizes at key VWAP levels.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

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• 07:00 AM – MBA Mortgage Rate: Fade ES breakouts beyond VWAP on any knee‑jerk sell‑off to 6130.
• 10:00 AM – Powell Testimony & New Home Sales: Use footprint delta clusters to scalp tech and homebuilder futures; tighten stops around VWAP.
• 10:30 AM – EIA Oil Report: Buy CL1! dips to VWAP near $64.80; target $65.20; stop $64.50 on draw-driven momentum.
• Equity VWAP Scalp: Lean long ES and YM on pullbacks to VWAP with delta confirmation; watch for trend‑continuation setups.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• 07:00 AM: MBA mortgage rate print drives homebuilder & regional bank futures.
• 10:00 AM: Powell testimony and New Home Sales data will be the session’s volatility anchors.
• 10:30 AM: EIA crude and gasoline inventory updates trigger energy futures moves.
• 11:00 AM Onward: Look for trend‑extension or mean‑reversion plays around VWAP bands.

Summary

Today’s session is driven by robust housing metrics and a massive crude draw, setting the stage for sector rotation into homebuilders and energy, with Fed testimony as the volatility focal point. Use VWAP levels and footprint delta signals to navigate breakouts and reversions around key levels. Sources: CME Group, MBA, Census Bureau, EIA, Bloomberg.