Morning Momentum: VWAP, Yields & Fed on Deck June 18, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Overnight Markets: Tokyo stocks rose after Japan’s PMI beat forecasts; China flat ahead of industrial output data; Europe mixed on bank earnings.
• U.S. Equity Futures: ES down 0.1%, NQ -0.2% on rising Treasury yields; investors await Fed decision; energy futures outperformed on oil draw.
• Oil & Commodities: WTI crude jumped 1.3% on a surprise EIA draw; gold steadied near $1,930 as the dollar eased.
• Bond Yields: 10‑year UST yield climbed to 4.15% after hawkish Fed commentary; higher yields pressuring growth stocks.

Impact: Mixed global cues and rising yields are keeping futures on edge—VWAP levels and footprint clusters will be key for spotting intraday reversals and breakouts.

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Technical Analysis

• ES Footprint & Delta: This morning's volume footprint shows an initial sell imbalance (delta -79) on ES1! at 6045, followed by absorption around 6042 and a subsequent positive delta cluster (+53) near 6048, suggesting buyers are defending value near the day's VWAP.
• Volume Profile: The opening range value area between 6037–6055 is holding, with low-volume nodes around 6030 and 6065 marking key levels for trending moves.
• VWAP & OBV: ES is trading slightly below VWAP, and OBV has held its prior session low, indicating a potential mean-reversion trade if ES can reclaim VWAP within the first hour.
• Other Indexes: NQ and RTY show similar footprint dynamics, with NQ displaying delta neutrality around 22,000 and RTY testing value area lows. CL and GC have pulled back to VWAP support after initial strength.

Economic Events Analysis

• 08:30 AM – Building Permits (Prel): Actual 1.393 M vs Consensus 1.43 M: slightly below expectations indicates moderate drag on construction spending, likely to pressure ES if print deviates further below the 1.4 M threshold.
• 08:30 AM – Housing Starts (Prel): Actual 1.256 M vs Consensus 1.36 M: a miss that may amplify morning weakness, opening fade opportunities below the 6037 value-area low.
• 08:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Acting as sentiment swing—stable at 245 K in line with forecasts, any surprise will reinforce the housing signal for broader equity reaction.
• 10:30 AM – EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks: Crude drew -3.644 M barrels vs -2.3 M forecast points to further upside in energy names, which can act as support for broad indices if oil rallies.
• 02:00 PM – FOMC Decision & Projections: No rate change expected but watch the commentary; dovish tone should lift futures, while hawkish language can trigger quick sell‑off.

Foundational Analysis

• Fed Outlook: No rate change expected today but dot‑plot commentary may shift bias; hawkish language keeping yields elevated.
• Macro Indicators: May retail sales +0.3% MoM vs -0.4% forecast; industrial production +0.2% MoM; mixed data points to uneven growth.
• Sector Positioning: Financials benefiting from higher yields; tech under pressure; energy remains a standout on supply concerns.
• Commodity Flows: CL footprint shows buyer support at $73; GC distribution below VWAP indicates range‑trade opportunities.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

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• Fed Decision Reaction (02:00 PM): Fade overreactions above/below VWAP within the first 5 minutes; lean against extreme moves.
• Housing Data (08:30 AM): Use breakout entries above 6055 or below 6037 on ES around permits and starts reaction.
• Oil Scalp (10:30 AM): Buy CL dips to VWAP near $73.20; target $73.75; stop at $72.90.
• Gold Range Fade: Sell GC rallies into $1,945; target $1,920; stop above VWAP breach.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• 08:30 AM: Housing Reports & Jobless Claims drive initial ES volatility near VWAP.
• 10:30 AM: EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks likely power CL and broader energy sector.
• 02:00 PM: Fed Decision & Projections dictate session sentiment; watch for statement vs. dot plot divergence.
• 04:00 PM: Net TIC Flows could influence USD direction into Asia tomorrow.

Summary

Today’s top theme is Fed expectations and key U.S. data—May retail sales, housing reports, and jobless claims will set the tone before the 2:00 PM FOMC. Keep an eye on VWAP and footprint clusters for high‑probability entries in ES, CL, and GC. Energy names lead on oil stock draws; financials may outperform on climbing yields, while tech remains vulnerable. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, MarketWatch.