Opening Bell Edge: VWAP Footprints & Retail Sales Spotlight June 17, 2025

By Alex | June 17, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Overnight Markets: Nikkei +0.5% led by tech gains; Shanghai flat ahead of China industrial data; European futures modestly higher on oil draw expectations.
• U.S. Equities Futures: ES and NQ up ~0.1%, YM flat; investors cautious ahead of June retail sales and import/export price reports at 8:30 AM.
• Oil & Commodities: API reports -0.6 M barrel draw, lifting CL futures toward $71.50; gold consolidates near $1,925 amid muted safe-haven demand.
• Bond Yields: 10‑year UST yield steady at 4.10%; Fed speakers remain quiet until PPI on Thursday, keeping rates outlook range-bound.

Impact: Markets tracking macro calendar over headlines—VWAP baselines and footprint clusters will guide intraday entries and exits.

Foundational Analysis

• Monetary Policy: Fed funds at 5.25–5.50%; mixed PPI and CPI readings suggest Fed waits for clear disinflation before easier policy.
• Macro Indicators: Capacity utilization flat at 77.7%; industrial production +0.1% MoM; retail sales expected -0.7% MoM—weak consumer spending may weigh on risk tone.
• Sector Positioning: Cyclicals vulnerable if retail disappoints; defensive staples and utilities likely outperform early; energy buoyed by oil draw.
• Commodity Flows: Crude inventories shrinking; metals quiet; footprint order flow in GC shows distribution below VWAP—bearish bias until breakeven.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

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• Retail Sales Reaction (08:30 AM): If retail prints below forecast, fade ES rallies above VWAP; on upside surprise, chase quick NQ breakouts to 22,120.
• Oil Pullback: Enter CL on dips to $71.30 after initial spike; scale out into strength above $71.60.
• Gold Range: Fade GC rallies into $1,930; aggressive sellers can target $1,915 if VWAP breach confirms distribution.
• Volume Clusters: Watch for footprint absorption zones on 5‑min charts near VWAP lines across all contracts for tight entries.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• 08:30 AM – Import/Export & Retail Data: Weaker retail may drive ES below VWAP; stronger import prices could pressure equities via margin concerns.
• 08:55 AM – Redbook YoY: Retail sentiment gauge—surprise upside can spark quick NQ upside; downside prints favor short‑term ES fades.
• 09:15 AM – Capacity & Production: Flat capacity utilization and modest industrial growth keep cyclicals in check; YM likely range-bound.
• 10:00 AM – Inventories & Housing Index: Stable business stocks and NAHB reading may limit volatility outside oil; fade extremes.
• 04:30 PM – API Crude Stock Change: Late-day oil stock swings can trigger follow‑through in CL and broad indexes; adjust positions accordingly.

Summary

Today’s session hinges on key U.S. data at 8:30 AM—retail and import/export prices will set the tone. Use VWAP and footprint clusters to navigate initial volatility: fade retreats in ES on soft retail, chase NQ power on surprise strength, and lean into energy longs on oil draw. Range‑traders can fade GC above resistance. Later, watch capacity and housing for extended moves. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Dow Jones, MarketWatch.