Your June 10 Equity Futures Playbook

By Alex | June 10, 2025

• Market Overview
• Technical Analysis
• Foundational Analysis
• Economic Events
• Scalper Strategy
• Post-Open Outlook
• Summary

Market Overview and Sentiment News

• US-China Trade Talks Resumption: Futures tread water as the second day of negotiations in London shows cautious optimism on semiconductors and rare earths impacting tech and industrial futures.
• WWDC AI Update Reaction: Apple dipped 1% after modest AI announcements, while Meta formed a new “superintelligence group,” stirring tech sector rotation in NQ futures.
• Energy & Commodities: Oil futures up ahead of API data; WTI testing $65 and CL futures eye upper VWAP bands. Gold gains on geopolitical caution, pressuring yield-sensitive indices.
• Fed Minutes Ahead: All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes; hawkish language could lift Treasury yields and press small caps in RTY and YM.
• Tech Earnings & Chipmakers: TSMC shares rose 2% on strong May AI chip revenue, boosting semis and setting the tone for NVDA and AMD in premarket action.

Impact: Navigate range-bound trade with VWAP-aware entries; focus on energy longs if API reports a draw and fade rallies on trade-talk setbacks or hawkish Fed cues.

Technical Analysis

(All times EDT, based on the 5-minute footprint charts for CL, GC, YM, NQ, and ES as of June 10, 2025)

• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL):
  • Footprint & Order Flow: Early selling pressure from 07:05–07:15 ET (delta –35) gave way to a decisive buying cluster at 07:30 ET (delta +94 on heavier volume), suggesting institutional accumulation near $64.50.
  • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP = 64.48. Price has reclaimed and held above VWAP, now testing resistance at 64.90 (upper Bollinger band). Support lies at 64.25 (opening-range low) and VWAP.
  • Momentum & Volatility:
    • ATR (14): ≈ 0.08, up from yesterday’s 0.07, indicating slight uptick in intraday volatility.
    • OBV: rising steadily since 07:30 ET, confirming buy-side commitment.
    • Choppiness (14): ≈ 48; a drop below ~38 would signal a clearer trending move.
  • Interpretation & Intra-Day Plan: Holding above VWAP with follow-through buying suggests a bullish bias. Target a run toward 65.10 on a clean break above 64.90. If VWAP fails, look for a retest of 64.25 with stops below VWAP.
• Gold Futures (GC):
  • Footprint & Order Flow: Sellers regained control from 07:10–07:20 ET (delta –63), keeping price below VWAP.
  • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP = 3,333.70. Price is testing support near 3,329.00. Resistance at VWAP and then 3,339.50 (upper ATR band).
  • Momentum & Volatility:
    • ATR (14): ≈ 2.70, showing steady volatility.
    • OBV: trending lower, signaling distribution.
    • Choppiness (14): ≈ 58, indicating a congested range.
  • Interpretation & Intra-Day Plan: Bias remains mildly bearish below VWAP. Consider shorting a break under 3,329.00 with a target toward 3,325.00. A reclaim of VWAP with volume could open a relief rally to 3,339.50.
• E-Mini Dow Jones (YM):
  • Overview: Price oscillating in a narrow range just above VWAP at 42,804.00, with limited order-flow skew (delta ~–10 to +15).
  • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 14.0; OBV slightly negative; Choppiness ≈ 51, suggesting rangebound conditions.
  • Plan: Buy near VWAP for a move toward 42,880.00; respect failure below VWAP for potential shorts to 42,750.00.
• Nasdaq 100 E-mini (NQ):
  • Overview: Sustained trading above VWAP at 21,766.00 since a 07:25 ET bounce (delta +67), reflecting buyer support.
  • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 11.8; OBV trending higher; Choppiness ≈ 52, indicating early trending potential.
  • Plan: Target a break above 21,820.00 for continuation longs; consider shorts if price slips below VWAP with increased selling volume.
• S&P 500 E-mini (ES):
  • Overview: Buying cluster at 07:20–07:30 ET around VWAP (6,005.21) shows institutional defense of that pivot.
  • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 2.59; OBV rising; Choppiness ≈ 50, indicating a balanced but potentially directional setup.
  • Plan: Long above VWAP targeting 6,020.00; respect breakdown under VWAP for short opportunities targeting 6,000.00.

Technical Trends: Across the board, footprint and order-flow data reveal a bullish tilt in energy (CL) and equity indices (ES, NQ) as prices hold above VWAP with rising OBV. Gold remains under distribution below VWAP, indicating bear control. Volatility measures are rising, suggesting potential breakout moves today, with key VWAP levels serving as intraday anchors for entries and stops.

Foundational Analysis

• Geopolitical Drivers: US‑China trade dynamics and rare earth negotiations are key short‑term catalysts for tech and industrial indices.
• Monetary Outlook: Fed minutes risk tilting yield trajectories; rising yields weigh on YM and RTY, while dovish surprises support equity rallies.
• Commodity Flows: Strong crude oil draws expected in API data underpin energy names, with spillover into broad indices via sector ETFs.
• Tech Leadership: AI narrative remains central—mixed WWDC reactions create rotation between megacaps and chip stocks in NQ futures.
• Volatility & Technical Anchors: CBOE VIX at 17.2; use VWAP, opening‑range highs/lows, and volume profile bands on 5‑minute charts as intraday pivots.

Takeaway: A confluence of trade, AI developments, Fed guidance, and energy data demands disciplined trading around VWAP pivots and event‑driven scalps.

Economic Events & Trading Implications

Time (ET)	Event	Forecast	Impact
04:30 PM	US API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jun 06)	–3.3M	🔶 Medium

Analysis & Trader Takeaways:

• 04:30 PM API Crude Oil Stock Change: A larger-than-expected draw (more negative than –3.3M) will likely push CL and energy-related futures higher, providing a tailwind for RTY and potentially ES. A surprise build could trigger short scalps in energy names and dampen broader futures via energy sector weakness.
• Positioning: Use VWAP channels to scale into energy longs on a deep draw. If API shows a build, consider quick mean-reversion shorts near VWAP in CL and hedge with shorts in ES or YM.
• Watch For: Follow-through at 04:30 PM, and prepare orders ahead of release. Stay aware of volume spikes at VWAP pivots for optimal execution.

Key Levels & VWAP Pivots:

• CL VWAP – 64.48; support 64.25; resistance 64.90.
• ES VWAP – 6,005.21; support 6,000.00; resistance 6,020.00.
• NQ VWAP – 21,766.00; support 21,750.00; resistance 21,820.00.
• YM VWAP – 42,804.00; support 42,750.00; resistance 42,880.00.
• GC VWAP – 3,333.70; support 3,329.00; resistance 3,339.50.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers and What to Watch For

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• Trade-Talk Volatility: Fade initial knee‑jerk swings in ES and NQ around trade-news headlines; use VWAP bands to time entries.
• API Crude Oil Reaction (4:30 PM ET): Buy CL dips below VWAP on a larger draw; short bump above VWAP if API shows a surprise build.
• Fed Minutes Scalps (2:00 PM ET): Anticipate yield‑driven moves; short YM and RTY on hawkish surprises, buy dips if language skews dovish.
• AI Sector Swings: Monitor NQ for rotation between chipmakers and big‑tech; buy on clear breakouts above VWAP in TSMC and AMD futures.
• Latency Edge: Maintain QuantVPS for 1 ms execution, crucial around these high‑volatility events.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• Asian PMI Impact (Open): Weak Caixin PMI may push initial US open toward VWAP levels in ES and NQ.
• WWDC Headlines: AI announcements could trigger 10–15 tick swings in NQ; plan quick scalps around VWAP channel.
• API Report Reaction (4:30 PM ET): Strong draw fuels energy surge, lifting RTY and ES; a build triggers rapid sell‑offs in CL and related futures.
• Fed Minutes Aftershocks (2:00 PM ET): Hawkish wording lifts 10‑year yields toward 3.7%, dragging YM below opening‑range lows; dovish cues reverse the move.
• Volatility Spikes: Watch VIX and volume profile gaps as break triggers for breakout or mean‑reversion plays.

Summary

Equity futures face a busy agenda—US‑China trade talks, Apple’s WWDC, AI sector rotations, Fed minutes, and crucial API oil data. Trading around VWAP pivots and technical anchors will be essential. Leverage QuantVPS for ultra-low latency to capture these event-driven moves with disciplined risk management.