Your June 12 Equity Futures Playbook

Your June 12 Equity Futures Playbook

By Alex | June 12, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

  • US CPI Meets Expectations: May CPI at 0.1% MoM keeps inflation in check, prompting modest gains in ES and NQ futures.
  • Fed Speak: Fed Chair Powell’s remarks argue for patience on rate cuts, driving mixed reactions—short-term pullbacks in YM but stability in CL.
  • Tech Earnings: Strong beats from Apple and Microsoft boost NQ futures by 0.8%, rotating gains into semis and software names.
  • Oil Inventory: API reports a 0.37M barrel draw, lifting CL toward $67.50 and adding bullish momentum to energy complex.
  • Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions ease after OPEC+ comments, capping further spikes in GC despite safe-haven demand.

Impact: Equity futures react to inflation and earnings beats—lean into longs on NQ/ES dips to VWAP, fade YM rallies on dovish Fed takes, and keep an eye on CL for continuation above $67.40.

Foundational Analysis

  • Monetary Policy: Fed’s neutral stance on inflation supports range-bound equity action; rate-cut bets remain on hold until July.
  • Macro Indicators: Consumer spending firms; retail sales up 0.3% in May, supporting broad market resilience.
  • Sector Rotation: Rotation into value as financials outperform tech; watch YM for bank earnings catalysts.
  • Commodity Flows: Oil demand outpaces supply draw—bullish for CL and energy equities; gold capped by rising real yields.

Takeaway: Balanced backdrop—static rates, solid consumer data, and earnings strength suggest disciplined VWAP-based entries and sector-specific plays.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

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  • CPI Reaction: Fade initial ES dips below VWAP if CPI prints accelerate; buy quick reversals back above baseline.
  • Fed Commentary: Short YM spikes on dovish language and buy when sentiment stabilizes near VWAP.
  • Energy Pullback: Enter CL longs on retraces to $67.20; scale out into strength toward $67.70.
  • Tech Ripples: Scalped non-farm beats in NQ—look for micro-breakouts above key big-tech names like AAPL and MSFT at session open.

What Could Happen After Market Open

  • PPI & Core PPI (08:30 AM): PPI MoM and PPI ex-Food/Energy MoM, along with Core PPI readings, will guide inflation expectations; disinflationary prints tend to rally ES/NQ, while upside surprises may spark early pullbacks.
  • PPI YoY & PPI Ex-Food/Energy YoY (08:30 AM): Annual inflation metrics set the broader tone; higher-than-expected readings can pressure equity futures via rate-hike fears.
  • Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (08:30 AM): Weekly claims data reveal labor-market strength; beats on the upside support risk tone, while higher claims may trigger short-term selling in YM and ES.
  • Jobless Claims 4‑Week Average (08:30 AM): Smoother trend for labor conditions; sustained increases could weigh on sentiment, while declines confirm resilience.
  • EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (10:30 AM): Forecasted draw of 108 B cf vs. prior 122 B cf; larger draws can lift energy names and spill into CL and broad indices.
  • 4‑Week & 8‑Week Bill Auctions (11:30 AM): Yields at 4.17% and 4.225%; strong demand can flatten the curve, buoying risk assets, while weak bids push yields up and may drag YM lower.
  • 15‑Year & 30‑Year Mortgage Rates (12:00 PM): Mortgage rate prints (approx. 5.99% and 6.85%) affect homebuilders in ES; sharp moves can create sector rotations.
  • WASDE Report (12:00 PM): Crop forecasts influence soft commodities; limited direct impact on equity futures but worth noting for broader market context.
  • 30‑Year Bond Auction (1:00 PM): Yield at ~4.819%; auction performance can sway Treasury yields and intraday equity positioning.
  • Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 PM): Changes set up Fed minutes; larger-than-expected expansions may fuel Fed tapering talks, affecting overnight futures.

Summary

Today’s session balances moderating inflation, solid consumer data, and strong earnings. Use VWAP-centric strategies: favor longs in NQ/ES near baseline, fade YM on dovish Fed tone, and keep CL on a tight leash around $67.40. Sector rotation and real‑time order flow will guide intraday edges. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal.

Technical Analysis

(All times EDT, based on the 5-minute footprint charts for CL, GC, YM, NQ, and ES as of June 12, 2025)

  • Light Crude Oil Futures (CL):
    • Trend & Order Flow: Early buying clusters around $67.00–$67.20 suggest institutional accumulation after a dip, indicating bullish bias.
    • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP ≈ 67.10. Price holding above VWAP, with support at 67.00 and resistance at 67.40.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR (14) ≈ 0.30; OBV rising; Choppiness (14) ≈ 45, indicating emerging trend.
    • Intra-Day Plan: Look for longs on dips toward VWAP with targets at 67.40 and 67.70; manage risk with stops below 67.00.
  • Gold Futures (GC):
    • Trend & Order Flow: Distribution dominates early, delta remains negative below VWAP, signaling bearish pressure.
    • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP ≈ 3398.50. Resistance near VWAP; support at 3390.00 and 3385.00.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR (14) ≈ 7; OBV declining; Choppiness (14) ≈ 60, suggesting range/congestion.
    • Intra-Day Plan: Consider shorts on rallies toward 3398.50, targeting 3390.00; switch to long if GC reclaims VWAP decisively.
  • E-Mini Dow Jones (YM):
    • Trend & Order Flow: Slight accumulation above VWAP at 42850.00; order-flow skew mixed, pointing to rangebound action.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 12; OBV flat; Choppiness ≈ 55, reinforcing a sideways market.
    • Plan: Buy near VWAP for bounces toward 42900.00; respect breakdowns below 42825.00 for shorts to 42775.00.
  • Nasdaq 100 E-mini (NQ):
    • Trend & Order Flow: Testing mid-range after early bounce at 21750.00 (delta +75), reflecting cautious buying.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 18; OBV slightly up; Choppiness ≈ 50, hinting at a possible directional breakout.
    • Plan: Target longs above 21790.00 for continuation; consider shorts on failures under VWAP at 21765.00.
  • S&P 500 E-mini (ES):
    • Trend & Order Flow: Institutional defense of VWAP at 6005.00 with buying clusters around 6008.00.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 3.0; OBV rising; Choppiness ≈ 52, indicating balanced but directional bias.
    • Plan: Go long above VWAP with targets at 6015.00; watch for shorts if price falls below 6000.00.

Technical Trends: Overall, energy (CL) and broad indices (ES) display early bullish tilt, while gold remains under distribution and YM/NQ traverse a range. Monitor VWAP interactions and order-flow clusters for intraday entry points.

Economic Events & Trading Implications

Time (ET) Event Forecast Impact Contract
08:30 AM US PPI MoM (May) 0.2% 🔴 High ES
08:30 AM US Core PPI MoM (May) 0.3% 🔴 High ES
08:30 AM Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims 240K / 1,910K 🔶 Medium YM
08:30 AM Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 235K 🔶 Medium YM
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 108 B cf 🔶 Medium NG
11:30 AM 4- & 8-Week Bill Auctions 4.17% / 4.225% 🔷 Low ZB
12:00 PM 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rates 5.99% / 6.85% 🔷 Low ES
12:00 PM WASDE Report — 🔷 Low ZC
1:00 PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.819% 🔶 Medium ZB
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet 6.677T 🔷 Low ES

Analysis & Trader Takeaways:

  • PPI & Core PPI (08:30 AM): Watch ES for a breakout on disinflationary prints; upside surprises may lead to quick pullbacks into VWAP.
  • Jobless Claims (08:30 AM): YM may see knee-jerk moves on labor data; lower claims support risk tone, while higher prints favor short opportunities.
  • EIA Natural Gas (10:30 AM): Trade NG on a larger-than-expected draw; clipping VWAP pivots will offer optimal entries.
  • Treasury Auctions (11:30 AM & 1:00 PM): ZB likely to rally on strong bids; weaker than forecast demand could steepen yields and pressure YM.
  • Mortgage Rates & WASDE (12:00 PM): Sharp mortgage moves may trigger ES sector rotations; WASDE typically muted but watch grain ETF futures on ZC for spillovers.
  • Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 PM): ES overnight futures may gap on balance-sheet surprises; use VWAP bands for fade or follow-through trades.

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