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Futures Focus: ADP & Crude Draw Power Early Market Moves - July 2, 2025

Futures Focus: ADP & Crude Draw Power Early Market Moves

Market Overview & Sentiment News

  • U.S. Equity Futures: ES +0.4%, NQ +0.5%, YM +0.3% as markets rally on an unexpected ADP jobs beat and strong tech guidance.
  • ADP Employment Change: Reported +37K vs 90K expected, signaling labor resilience ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
  • Tech Earnings: Nvidia shares up 3% premarket after upbeat Q2 outlook; Apple and Microsoft also trading higher on strong results.
  • Oil & Commodities: Crude futures down 0.6% despite a 5.8M barrel draw, while gold edges up on safe-haven flows.
  • Fed Watch: All eyes on Fed Bostic’s 11:00 AM speech—hawkish comments could temper further gains.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, CME Group

Foundational Analysis

  • Labor Market Strength: ADP’s upside surprise underscores continued job demand, supporting cyclical sectors.
  • Tech Outperformance: Positive guidance from mega-cap firms is propelling equity futures despite mixed macro signals.
  • Commodity Divergence: Energy sees choppy strength after inventory draws; metals like gold find bid on geopolitical caution.
  • Fed Commentary Key: Comments from Fed officials remain pivotal—scalpers should watch for volatility spikes during speeches.

Technical Analysis

  • ES (S&P 500 Futures): Strong gap up to 6,265, holding above VWAP (~6,252) with higher-lows; look for continuation toward 6,280 on pullbacks to VWAP.
  • YM (Dow Futures): Sharp early surge from VWAP (~44,600) into 44,900, now in tight range; consider scalp fade toward VWAP or breakout plays above 44,925.
  • GC (Gold Futures): Trading near session highs around 3,355 above VWAP (~3,345); favor long dips toward VWAP support targeting 3,365.
  • NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Under pressure after overnight sell-off, trading below VWAP (~22,650) near 22,620; prefer short setups at VWAP with stops above 22,650.
  • RTY (Russell 2000 Futures): Continued uptrend above VWAP (~2,220), probing 2,235; look for long entries on pullbacks toward VWAP or consolidation breakouts.
  • CL (Crude Oil Futures): Bullish momentum, making fresh highs above VWAP (~65.50) into 66.20; aggressive longs on dips toward VWAP with stops under 65.90.
  • VWAP & Delta Themes: Commodity complex leading the move, tech showing fatigue; anchor scalps around VWAP bands and watch footprint deltas for entry signals.

Economic Events Analysis

  • 07:00 AM – MBA 30‑Year Mortgage Rate: Rate eased to 6.88%, minor impact on equity futures; slight support for financials early on.
  • 08:15 AM – ADP Employment Change: Came in at +37K vs 90K expected; soft print could trigger initial dips in ES and NQ, with mean-reversion scalps on VWAP.
  • 10:30 AM – EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks: Crude draw of -5.84M vs -2.26M forecast and gasoline draw of -2.08M vs +0.66M forecast; energy futures likely to extend gains, supporting energy equities.
  • Fri (Jul 03), 08:30 AM – NFP Preview: Consensus 100K vs 139K prior; traders should position cautiously, using today’s ADP and inventory data to gauge risk into tomorrow’s release.

Source: Trading Economics Economic Calendar fileciteturn1file0

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

  • Pre-Open Range: Fade ES breakouts outside 6,250–6,270 on footprint delta confirmation.
  • 08:15 AM ADP Reaction: Mean-reversion scalps in ES and NQ around VWAP on initial knee-jerk moves.
  • 10:30 AM EIA Data: Expect energy names to run; short CL rallies to VWAP (~65.50) with tight stops.
  • 11:00 AM Fed Bostic: Scale into small-range swings on delta exhaustion; avoid directional trades ahead of clarity.
Use a Virtual Private Server: With QuantVPS, execute trades with sub-millisecond speed.

What Could Happen After Market Open

  • 08:15 AM: Quick reversals on ES/NQ as traders digest ADP—watch VWAP breaks for entry clues.
  • 10:30 AM: EIA inventory may trigger choppy energy action—fade or follow-through on crude moves.
  • 11:00 AM: Fed Bostic remarks likely to spark volatility—prepare for rapid delta shifts around VWAP bands.
  • Fri 08:30 AM: Preview of NFP—today’s data informs positioning ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report.

Summary

Equity futures are rallying on an ADP beat and robust tech earnings, offsetting mixed crude draw data. Scalpers should focus on VWAP and footprint delta signals around major release times, with tight risk management ahead of Fed Bostic’s speech and tomorrow’s payrolls.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, CME Group

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