Futures Frontier: Tech Turbulence and Fed Speeches Drive Early Moves - 1 July 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• US Equity Futures: ES1! down ~0.1%, NQ1! -0.2%, YM1! -0.05% as traders digest tech sector pressure and ongoing Senate tax bill negotiations.
• Tech Sector Moves: Tesla shares dropped over 5% on CEO dispute with President Trump; Oracle reached record highs after a $30B cloud deal announcement.
• Trade & Geopolitics: U.S. futures slip amid trade war concerns and Senate budget wrangling; China pledges crackdown on price wars to combat deflation risks.
• Commodities & FX: Gold steadied near session highs on safe‑haven flows; crude oil futures up 0.7% after larger‑than‑expected API draw; dollar marginally weaker vs major currencies.

Sources: Reuters, Investopedia, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Saxo Bank

Technical Analysis

• ES (S&P 500 Futures): After holding above VWAP (~6,240) overnight, ES softened below VWAP premarket before finding support at 6,225. Footprint deltas show buyers stepping in on dips toward VWAP—look for pullback entries targeting a retest of 6,250.
• NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Pressured below VWAP (~22,600) in early session, with negative delta clusters dominating. Avoid breakout longs until price can reclaim 22,600, with stops under 22,580 if attempting countertrend bounces.
• YM (Dow Futures): Trading within a tight range around VWAP (~44,350). Sideways action suggests indecision—scalp long above 44,400 and short below 44,300, waiting for a directional catalyst.
• RTY (Russell 2000 Futures): Weakness below VWAP (~2,190), trending down into 2,180. Negative deltas indicate seller control—favor short scalps on rallies toward VWAP resistance around 2,190.
• GC (Gold Futures): Strong uptrend above VWAP (~3,310), retesting recent highs. Look for pullback entries near VWAP support around 3,305, targeting extensions toward 3,320.
• CL (Crude Oil Futures): Sustained rally above VWAP (~65.00) with positive deltas—consider long scalps on dips toward 65.20, with stops below 64.90, as crude inventory draw supports energy sector strength.
• Overall VWAP & Delta Trends: Mixed tone in equities with rotation into commodities—anchor entries around VWAP touchpoints and use footprint signals to align scalps with prevailing delta clusters.

Economic Events Analysis

• 09:30 AM – Fed Chair Powell Speech: High-impact event—expect heightened volatility. Avoid directional bias into the speech and use small-range scalps on delta fades.
• 10:00 AM – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Printed 48.5 vs 49.2 consensus, showing deeper contraction in US factory activity. Watch for initial weakness in industrial and tech futures—fade breakouts below VWAP, then pivot on any bid replenishment.
• 10:00 AM – JOLTs Job Openings (May): Came in at 7.391M vs 7.1M consensus, signaling firm labor demand. A stronger labor market may underpin equity sentiment if PMI weakness stabilizes after initial shock.
• 10:00 AM – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun): Slipped to 46.8 vs 48 forecast—continued job contraction in factories. Tighten stops on long setups in industrial names.
• 04:30 PM – API Crude Oil Stock Change: Reported -4.277M vs -2.26M prior, indicating a larger-than-expected draw. Supports energy futures—expect spillover strength in energy-related equities.

Foundational Analysis

• Strong Q2 Performance: S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the first half at record highs, buoyed by hopes for trade deals and potential rate cuts.
• Trade War Impact: Continued uncertainty from U.S.-China tariffs and NAFTA tensions has contributed to market swings.
• Macro Indicators: Mixed ISM and JOLTs data suggest uneven economic momentum; stronger job openings may underpin equity sentiment.
• Fed Speeches on Deck: Powell’s remarks set to spark volatility, while Fed officials’ commentary will be key to guiding near-term market direction.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• Pre-Open Range: Fade initial ES breakouts outside 6,240–6,260 range using footprint deltas to confirm entry signals.
• Fed Powell Speech (9:30 AM): Stay flat‑to‑light, scalp small‑range moves on delta exhaustion; avoid trend bets until clarity emerges.
• ISM PMI & JOLTs (10:00 AM): For ISM misses, lean defensive scalps in industrial futures; for JOLTs beats, consider quick longs in tech proxies.
• API Crude Report (4:30 PM): Expect energy futures rallies post‑release; scalp CL1! on dips toward VWAP with tight stops.

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What Could Happen After Market Open

• 9:30 AM: Rapid swings around VWAP as Fed Chair Powell speaks; expect reversals on failed breakouts.
• 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing print may drive industrial and tech futures; initial gaps likely fade quickly.
• 10:00 AM: JOLTs Job Openings headline could reverse early weakness—pivot trades on surprising strength.
• 10:00 AM: ISM Employment sub-index may tighten stops on long industrial setups.
• 4:30 PM: API crude draw could trigger extended energy sector rallies into late session.

Summary

Equity futures opened with modest weakness as traders weigh tech sector headwinds, Fed Chair Powell’s speech, and mixed economic data. Key events—ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs Job Openings, and API crude inventory—will drive volatility and define trading opportunities. Scalpers should anchor entries around VWAP bands and footprint delta signals, maintaining tight risk management. Watch for potential reversals on failed breakouts and be ready to pivot post-data releases.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance