Tariff Tease & API Shock: Your July 08 Equity Futures Playbook

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on 14 nations until August 1, easing immediate trade-war fears; futures were mixed with S&P up 0.12%, Nasdaq up 0.25%, and Dow down 0.08% premarket.
• Amazon’s Prime Day kicked off with projected $23.8 B in sales, boosting e-commerce stocks and tech futures.
• Tesla rebounded 1% after Monday’s 6.7% drop on CEO Musk’s political announcement, supporting tech-led futures momentum.
• Meta Platforms hired Apple’s AI lead, fueling AI sector optimism and underpinning semiconductor futures.
• Bitcoin traded just below $109 k, and Treasury yields rose to ~4.42%, influencing risk sentiment in equity futures.
• Oil and gold futures retraced lower after API data showed a surprise crude build of +0.68 M barrels, pressuring commodity-linked names.

Economic Events & Calendar

• 04:30 PM ET – API Crude Oil Stock Change (JUL/04): Actual +0.68 M vs Previous -2.8 M. The surprise build signals increased supply, likely pressuring crude futures and energy-related equities; expect volatility and potential fade‑backs into VWAP support.
• Upcoming Risks: No other major U.S. releases until tomorrow’s FOMC minutes, leaving trade headlines and liquidity flows to drive today’s markets. Plan for thinner pre‑weekend volume and focus on high‑probability technical setups.

Foundational Analysis

• Tariff delay to August 1 eases trade tensions in the near term, improving risk appetite in equity futures.
• Strong consumer spending highlighted by Amazon Prime Day supports broader market momentum.
• Rising Treasury yields to ~4.42% reflect moderating rate-cut expectations ahead of tomorrow’s Fed minutes.
• Surprise API crude build signals elevated supply, applying pressure to energy futures.
• Thin summer liquidity and holiday week conditions suggest tighter ranges—scalp with discipline.

Technical Analysis

• ES (S&P 500 Futures): After testing overnight lows near 6,280, ES bounced strongly above VWAP (~6,295) and is trading near 6,305; look to buy dips to VWAP targeting 6,320, with stops below 6,290.
• YM (Dow Futures): The Dow recovered from early lows just below VWAP (~44,600) and is consolidating above 44,650; favor long entries on pullbacks to VWAP toward 44,700, aiming for the overnight high near 44,750.
• NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): NQ held support at VWAP (~22,850) after an overnight drop and rallied to 22,920; use VWAP retests as long triggers toward 23,000 resistance.
• RTY (Russell 2000 Futures): Small caps led the recovery, moving above VWAP (~2,225) into 2,235; bias higher on dips to VWAP with a breakout target of 2,250.
• CL (Crude Oil Futures): CL extended its overnight rally, moving above VWAP (~67.20) into 68.00 ahead of API reports; consider long setups above VWAP with stops near 67.00, but remain cautious into inventory data.
• GC (Gold Futures): Gold remains under pressure below VWAP (~3,335), struggling to reclaim key levels; bearish bias remains, targeting rallies to VWAP as short entries toward 3,365.
• VWAP & Delta Themes: Broad-based long bias on major indices into VWAP support, while precious metals lag. Energy and small‑caps demonstrate relative strength, offering theme‑based entry opportunities via footprint delta confirmations.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• Fade tariff-related spikes in ES/NQ; target mean reversion to VWAP with tight stops.
• Scalp tech momentum around Amazon Prime Day and Tesla news for high-probability moves.
• Monitor API crude data reaction; fade extended oil moves into VWAP support.
• Use low-latency execution via QuantVPS to capture rapid volatility bursts.
• Tighten stops and demand 2:1 reward-to-risk given thin pre-weekend volume.

Use a Virtual Private Server: With QuantVPS, execute trades with ~1 ms latency.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• Initial bounce on tariff delay may reverse as yields climb on hawkish Fed signals.
• Tech futures likely lead on Prime Day and AI-hiring news, outpacing broad indices.
• Energy and commodity futures may sell off into VWAP after the surprise API print.
• Expect range-bound mid-session trading amid light holiday liquidity before Fed minutes.

Summary

Equity futures opened mixed as President Trump’s tariff delay soothed trade jitters while rising Treasury yields to ~4.42% capped upside.

Tech momentum from Amazon Prime Day and Meta’s AI hiring underpins Nasdaq and S&P futures, even as energy and gold remain pressured by inventory data.

Scalpers should focus on rapid mean-reversion into VWAP bands, leverage low-latency execution, and maintain disciplined risk given holiday-thin volume and incoming Fed minutes.

Sources include Investopedia, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg.