Does options buying predict where Nasdaq-100 futures go?
Tests whether more money going into call options than put options, on the Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) or across the whole market, predicts whether Nasdaq-100 futures rise or fall that day. None of the three rules did.
Refuted: Failed its test once trading costs were included. How to read a study.
Verdict, as the study states it: All three policies refuted (FL1 QQQ 10:10 flow, FL2 market tide 10:10, FL3 prior-day QQQ flow). No factor carries direction.
- Study number
- FPR-26-10
- Versions tested
- 3
- Pre-registration written
- Sep 9, 2026, 13:33 ET
- First result
- Sep 9, 2026, 13:34 ET
- Markets
- NQ, with QQQ net premium and market-wide tide
- Backs
- Gamma walls, cages and flow direction
- Sample
- 712 sessions 2023-10-10 to 2026-09-04; halves split 2025-03-15
- Costs
- 0.25 pt slippage; stop max(12, 2 x ATR3 of 5m bars); target 1.5R; 60-minute cap
Notes and defects
The prereg file (13:33:24) predates the first flow data file (13:33:31), consistent with 'frozen before the bulk pull'. Arms = FL1-FL3 (8 descriptive factor/target rows carry no verdict). Timestamp defect: the prereg says 'frozen 2026-09-09 14:45'; the file system and the results header (13:35) show it was written about 70 minutes earlier than stated.
Data needed to rerun: CME futures 1-minute OHLCV bars (Databento GLBX layout: ts_event,rtype,publisher_id,instrument_id,open,high,low,close,volume,symbol) at <data-root>/fp-data/glbx/<ROOT>/1m/<YEAR>.csv; licensed vendor data, not redistributed (NQ); per-minute QQQ net-premium ticks and market tide per date from Unusual Whales API data (requires your own subscription; the pull scripts here read the key from an env file named by UW_KEY_FILE) (backfill_flow.mjs writes <data-root>/fp-data/flow/*.json.gz)
Original working title: Options-flow direction factors: does net options premium carry NQ direction?
Files
Pre-registration2026-09-09-flow-prereg.md
Results2026-09-09-flow-results.md
Codebackfill_flow.mjscrown_policies.pyflow_study.pyopen_factors.py
Hashes for every file are in SHA256SUMS. Market data is not included.
Cite this study
Futures Playbook Research (2026). Does options buying predict where Nasdaq-100 futures go?. Study FPR-26-10. https://www.futuresplaybook.com/research/options-flow-direction
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.