The night before Federal Reserve decisions, tested on new nights
Nasdaq-100 futures have tended to rise on the night before a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Because that pattern was found in past data, the only fair test is on decisions that have not happened yet. The rule was fixed in August 2026 and needs 8 new decision nights; 1 has happened so far, so there is no verdict yet.
In forward test: Passed on past data; now being checked on new data as it arrives. How to read a study.
Verdict, as the study states it: No verdict yet. Shadow only: promotion requires forward n >= 8 (about 2027-08 at the earliest), forward mean net > 0, forward hit rate >= 55%, pooled t > 3.0, and positive excess over the non-FOMC baseline.
- Study number
- FPR-26-05
- Versions tested
- 1
- Pre-registration written
- Aug 26, 2026, 07:20 ET
- First result
- none yet
- Markets
- NQ (1 contract)
- Backs
- The pre-FOMC night on NQ
- Sample
- Historical seed n=85 FOMC days 2016-01-27 to 2026-07-29 (can never promote the rule); forward observations from 2026-08-26 onward: 1 so far (2026-09-16)
- Costs
- 1.0 index point round trip
Notes and defects
This is the only genuinely out-of-sample test of the pre-FOMC rule, and it has 1 of the 8 forward observations its own frozen bar requires. The rule graded here enters at 18:00 ET (after the daily halt) and exits 09:30 ET. The forward track file (prefomc-shadow-track.jsonl, per-date entry/exit prices) is not included. The grader (prefomc_shadow.py, created 07:12:11) predates the spec (07:20:57); the spec froze the promotion bar before any forward observation existed.
Data needed to rerun: CME futures 1-minute OHLCV bars (Databento GLBX layout: ts_event,rtype,publisher_id,instrument_id,open,high,low,close,volume,symbol) at <data-root>/fp-data/glbx/<ROOT>/1m/<YEAR>.csv; licensed vendor data, not redistributed (NQ); FMP economic calendar (FOMC decision dates, 'Interest Rate Decision', country US)
Original working title: Pre-FOMC overnight drift: forward shadow-grading spec and grader
Files
Pre-registration2026-08-26-prefomc-shadow-spec.md
Hashes for every file are in SHA256SUMS. Market data is not included.
Cite this study
Futures Playbook Research (2026). The night before Federal Reserve decisions, tested on new nights. Study FPR-26-05. https://www.futuresplaybook.com/research/pre-fomc-forward-shadow
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.