Tariff Tussle & Tech Triumph: Your July 10 Equity Futures Playbook

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• U.S. stock futures were broadly flat premarket, with S&P 500 and Dow futures near unchanged and Nasdaq futures up slightly under 0.1% as markets digest mixed data and headlines.
• President Trump’s announcement of 50% reciprocal tariffs on copper and Brazilian imports weighed on broad-market sentiment, adding a layer of geopolitical risk.
• Nvidia’s surge to a historic $4 trillion market cap continues to propel tech-driven momentum in equity futures.
• Delta Air Lines jumped 12% premarket on stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings and raised full-year guidance, boosting airline-linked futures.
• WK Kellogg spiked over 50% amid takeover chatter by Ferrero, fueling M&A-driven moves in consumer staples futures.
• Bitcoin hovered near $109,000 and 10-year Treasury yields held around 4.4%, reflecting a nuanced risk environment.

Economic Events & Calendar

• 08:30 AM ET – US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05): Actual 227K vs Previous 232K and Consensus 235K — decline signals resilient labor market, supporting risk-on bias in equity futures.
• 10:00 AM ET – Fed’s Musalem Speech: Monitor for hawkish or dovish clues that could drive volatility in rate-sensitive and financial futures.
• 01:15 PM ET – Fed’s Waller Speech: Additional Fed commentary may reinforce or temper market sentiment; adjust positioning ahead of remarks.
• 02:30 PM ET – Fed’s Daly Speech: Daly’s perspectives on inflation and rates could trigger late-session swings; manage stops and exposures accordingly.
• Upcoming Risks: With no other major U.S. data until tomorrow, focus will remain on Fed speakers; expect range-bound trade with intraday spikes around each speech.

Foundational Analysis

• Tariff escalations are introducing fresh volatility, but markets have so far shrugged off major downside risk, indicating resilience.
• Tech megacaps, led by Nvidia, remain the engine of market gains, underlining the importance of AI and chip stocks for futures traders.
• Robust airline earnings from Delta and peers signal strength in travel demand, prompting bullish bias in sector‑related futures.
• M&A headlines are driving abrupt sector rotations, as seen with WK Kellogg, highlighting catalysts beyond economic data.
• Mixed signals from cryptocurrencies and bond yields point to a bifurcated market, with both risk‑on and risk‑off elements at play.

Technical Analysis

• ES (S&P 500 Futures): Trading above VWAP (~6,295) after overnight rally to ~6,315; favor long entries on dips to VWAP targeting 6,320–6,340, with stops below 6,280.
• YM (Dow Jones Futures): Held VWAP (~44,600) and rallied to ~44,700; buy pullbacks to VWAP aiming for 44,750–44,800, stops below 44,550.
• NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Extended gap fill above VWAP (~22,800) and testing 23,000; seek long triggers on VWAP retests targeting 23,050–23,100, stops below 22,900.
• RTY (Russell 2000 Futures): Rebounded off VWAP (~2,250) into 2,270; maintain bullish bias, buy dips near VWAP toward 2,285, stops below 2,235.
• GC (Gold Futures): Trading above VWAP (~3,315) and holding key support; consider long bias on dips to VWAP targeting 3,345–3,360, stops below 3,300.
• CL (Crude Oil Futures): Dip below VWAP (~69.00) into 67.75 — maintain bearish bias, look to short rallies toward VWAP near 69.00, stops above 69.50, targets 66.50–66.00.
• Overall Themes: Broad-based equity futures show intraday bullish momentum with VWAP support as key pivot; gold outperformance highlights mixed risk tone; crude oil weakness may weigh on energy sectors. Use VWAP and delta-confirmed entries for precision.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• Scalp tariff‑driven spikes in copper and base metals; look to fade excess moves back to VWAP for quick profits.
• Ride momentum in Nvidia and other AI chip leaders around overnight highs, using VWAP retests for entry points.
• Target airline futures on Delta’s earnings move; consider long setups above VWAP with tight stops.
• Play M&A catalysts in consumer staples, specifically names like WK Kellogg, into momentum breakouts.
• Fade energy futures on strength, particularly crude oil, into VWAP support levels with strict risk controls.
• Use a Virtual Private Server: With QuantVPS, execute trades with sub‑1 ms latency.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• Pre‑open tariff news may drive spikes in commodity‑linked futures, particularly copper and base metals.
• Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET could reinforce labor market strength and underpin equity futures.
• Fed speeches throughout the day may trigger intraday volatility in rate‑sensitive and financial futures.
• Market reaction to M&A news, including WK Kellogg and Delta updates, could fuel sector rotations.
• Watch VWAP pivots for key support and resistance levels across major index futures as benchmarks.

Summary

Equity futures opened the day in a holding pattern as investors balanced headline risks from Trump’s new tariffs with strong earnings and tech leadership.

Tariff moves on copper and Brazilian imports added geopolitical uncertainty, yet Nvidia’s $4 trillion valuation and robust Delta results provided layered support.

M&A chatter in consumer staples and commodity dynamics reflected a split market tone, reinforcing the need for disciplined entries around VWAP.

Scalpers should focus on fading excess commodity moves, riding tech momentum, and capitalizing on sector catalysts with tight risk controls.

Today’s catalysts—jobs data, Fed commentary, and corporate news—may drive intraday swings; use VWAP as a guiding framework for trades.