Ceasefire Rally: VWAP, Fed Testimony & Housing Data on Deck June 24, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Overnight Markets: Asia and Europe surged on Mideast ceasefire hopes—Japan’s Nikkei +1.1%, Germany’s DAX +1.8% after Trump announced an Israel-Iran truce.
• U.S. Equity Futures: ES1! +0.9%, NQ1! +1.15%, YM1! +0.8%, RTY1! +1.0% on a broad risk‑on move into growth names.
• Oil & Commodities: WTI crude slid ~3% to $66.80 on eased supply fears; gold dipped 1.7% to $3,338 amid weaker safe-haven demand.
• Bond Yields & FX: 10‑year UST yield eased to 4.12%; DXY down 0.3%; EUR/USD +0.4%; USD/JPY -2% ahead of Fed testimony.

Impact: Mixed global cues and rising yields are keeping futures on edge—VWAP levels and footprint clusters will be key for spotting intraday reversals and breakouts.

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Technical Analysis

• ES Footprint & Delta: Early session ES1! showed a sell imbalance of -85 delta at 6130, followed by aggressive buyer absorption near 6122, indicating value defense around the 6150 VWAP region, suggesting potential mean reversion if ES reclaims VWAP.
• NQ Footprint & Delta: NQ1! displayed strong positive delta clusters (+150) around 22350, aligning with volume profile POC, highlighting tech buying momentum for a potential breakout above 22380.
• CL Footprint & Delta: CL1! remains under selling pressure, with negative delta (-120) around 65.80 and a rejection at the 66.20 VWAP, signaling bearish continuation unless inventory data surprises.
• GC Footprint & Delta: GC1! is range-bound between 3325–3340, with mixed delta signatures and VWAP support at 3330, favoring intra-range fade strategies.
• YM and RTY Dynamics: YM1! consolidates around 43150–43200 with neutral delta, while RTY1! shows mild buying at 2170, indicating small-cap resilience and potential long bias on dips.
• VWAP & OBV Signals: Broad equity futures are trading near VWAPs with OBV trends flattening, hinting at limited directional conviction until Fed testimonies complete.

Economic Events Analysis

• 08:30 AM – US Current Account Q1: Actual -$380B vs Consensus -$450B – narrower deficit may underpin USD strength and pressure equity futures early.
• 09:00 AM – S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (APR): Actual 4.1% vs Consensus 4.0% – modest housing price gain supports consumer asset wealth.
• 09:15 AM – Fed Hammack Speech & 10:00 AM – Fed Chair Powell Testimony: High-impact Fed lineup; expect volatility around rate outlook comments.
• 10:00 AM – CB Consumer Confidence (JUN): Actual 98.0 vs Consensus 99.0 – slight miss may weigh on consumer-facing sectors.
• 04:30 PM – API Crude Oil Stocks Change (JUN/20): Actual -10.133M vs Consensus -0.6M – large draw supports energy futures; watch CL for rapid moves.

Foundational Analysis

• Fed Outlook: Jerome Powell testifies at 10:00 AM after Fed Hammack at 9:15 AM; markets look for rate‑cut cues.
• Macro Indicators: US Current Account Q1 -$380B (narrower); S&P/Case‑Shiller Home Prices +4.1% YoY; Consumer Confidence 98.0 vs 99.0 expected.
• Sector Positioning: Tech leads on risk‑on; energy under pressure from lower oil; financials stable on yield pivot.
• Commodity Flows: API crude draw -10.13M barrels supports energy volatility; gold range‑bound near key VWAP levels.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

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• Housing Data (09:00 AM): Trade ES breakouts above 6160 / breakdowns below 6130 around permits and Case‑Shiller print.
• Fed Speakers (09:15 AM & 10:00 AM): Fade overreactions beyond VWAP in first five minutes of Hammack and Powell remarks.
• API Oil Report (04:30 PM): Buy CL1! dips to VWAP near $66.50; target $67.20; stop $66.30 on large inventory draw.
• Equity VWAP Scalp: Lean long ES on pullback to VWAP; use footprint delta clusters to confirm reversal.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• 09:00 AM: Permits & Case‑Shiller Home Prices drive early ES volatility.
• 09:15 AM: Fed Hammack speech sparks fast flips around VWAP.
• 10:00 AM: Powell testimony & CB Consumer Confidence dictate session direction.
• 04:30 PM: API Crude Stock Change fuels CL1! volatility into overnight session.

Summary

Today’s theme is a risk‑on surge led by a Mideast ceasefire and Fed testimony ahead. Housing data and a hefty crude draw add sector nuance—tech and equities rally, energy steadies below VWAP, and bond yields inch back. Trade with VWAP and footprint cues for high‑probability entries. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Investopedia, AP, Dow Jones.