Futures Fervor: Durable Goods Slump Meets GDP Beat — June 26, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Asia & Europe: Nikkei +0.1%, Shanghai +0.2%, DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.3% on mixed economic cues ahead of US data.
• US Equity Futures: ES1! +0.30%, NQ1! +0.50%, YM1! +0.20%, RTY1! +0.40% as traders digest a sharp durable goods decline and stronger-than-expected GDP.
• Sector Buzz: Industrials and tech under pressure early on durable goods miss; financials and homebuilders perk up on GDP upside and strong corporate profits.
• Energy & Metals: Crude tests VWAP support at $65.00 after modest oil draw; gold holds tight between 3,350–3,360 amid cautious risk sentiment.

Impact: The tug-of-war between weak manufacturing orders and robust GDP has created range-bound opportunities; focus on sector rotation from defensives into cyclicals around key VWAP levels.

Technical Analysis

• ES Footprint & Delta: Recent footprint shows a persistent sell imbalance around 6130, absorbed at VWAP support near 6167; flattening OBV suggests cautious entry, targeting a mean reversion rally into mid-session if 6175 is reclaimed.
• NQ Footprint & Delta: Strong delta clusters above VWAP at 22,550 indicate buying pressure; a breakout above 22,580 could trigger fresh leg higher, but recent negative delta on pullbacks advises tightening stops.
• CL Footprint & Delta: A large crude draw saw aggressive bids test support at $64.80 VWAP, with a balanced distribution forming; look for a rebound toward $65.20 on sustained energy momentum.
• GC Footprint & Delta: Gold’s footprint shows absorption between 3,345–3,350; tight range suggests fade strategies while waiting for a clear breakout above 3,360 or breakdown below 3,340.
• YM & RTY Dynamics: YM displays neutral delta around 43,400; small range scalps between VWAP bands are optimal. RTY is absorbing dips with mild positive delta, favoring long entries on pullbacks near 2,160.
• Broad VWAP & OBV Trends: All contracts are gravitating to VWAP with mixed OBV signals; entries around VWAP touchpoints combined with footprint delta clusters offer high-probability setups.

Economic Events Analysis

• 08:30 AM – US Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAY): Actual -6.3% vs 8.5% prior – a sharp drop signals potential softness in manufacturing, likely weighing on industrial and tech futures early.
• 08:30 AM – US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q1): Actual 2.4% vs -0.2% prior – stronger growth supports risk-on positioning; expect initial bullish reaction in equity futures.
• 08:30 AM – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (MAY): -0.25 vs -0.10 prior – continued broad-based weakness advises caution on breakout trades around VWAP.
• 08:30 AM – US Corporate Profits QoQ Final (Q1): 5.9% vs -3.6% prior – strong earnings data underpins overall market strength; favor momentum strategies in major indices.
• 10:00 AM – US Pending Home Sales MoM (MAY): -6.3% vs -0.3% prior – housing weakness could pressure regional bank futures; consider fade strategies on homebuilder rallies.

Foundational Analysis

• Durable Goods MoM (May): -6.3% vs +8.5% prior, signaling gusts of industrial weakness—favor defensive rotation in early trade.
• GDP QoQ Final (Q1): +2.4% vs -0.2% prior, underscoring resilient consumer spending and investment—backs risk-on setups after initial dip.
• Chicago Fed Index (May): -0.25 vs -0.10 prior, hints broad-based slowdown—keep breakout trades restrained until confirmed.
• Corporate Profits QoQ (Q1): +5.9% vs -3.6% prior, supports earnings-driven rallies in major indices—track momentum in top-weight names.
• Housing Signals: Pending Home Sales -6.3% vs -0.3% prior, may weigh on regional banks and homebuilders—consider fade on bounces.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• 08:30 AM – Durable Goods / GDP / Fed Index: Fade ES breakouts beyond VWAP on durable goods miss, then pivot long on GDP reflation moves with tight stops.
• 09:00 AM – Corporate Profits Theme: Use delta clusters in tech names to scalp NQ pullbacks, aligning entries with breakout thresholds above 22,580.
• 10:00 AM – Housing Data Impact: Short RTY rallies on pending sales slump; lean into YM scalp range between VWAP bands with delta confirmation.
• Energy Scalp: Buy CL1! dips to VWAP near $65.00; target $65.40; stop $64.80 on momentum reversal.
• Equity VWAP Play: Use footprint delta touchpoints on ES/YM to time small-range scalps; tighten stops around intraday highs and lows.

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What Could Happen After Market Open

• 08:30 AM: Durable goods and GDP prints drive initial volatility; expect whipsaws around VWAP before trend emerges.
• 09:00 AM: Corporate profit commentary sparks sector rotations—tech and financials likely lead.
• 10:00 AM: Housing data hits; regional banks and homebuilders may see sharp moves.
• 11:00 AM Onward: Monitor VWAP bands for continuation or mean-reversion plays as sectors settle.

Summary

Today’s session hinges on the split between a durable goods slump and an upside GDP surprise, fueling range-bound, sector-driven setups. Trade the tug-of-war using VWAP levels and footprint delta signals for precise entries. Focus on cyclicals into rebound flows, but manage risk around headline prints. Sources: CME Group, US Census Bureau, BEA, Chicago Fed, S&P Global.