Futures Fervor: PMI Plunge Meets Strong Treasury Demand — June 30, 2025

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Asia & Europe: Nikkei slipped -0.2% while Shanghai rallied +0.4% on softer manufacturing data; DAX and FTSE were mixed as investors weighed regional PMI contractions ahead of today’s US releases.
• US Equity Futures: ES1! flat near +0.05%, NQ1! +0.15%, YM1! -0.10%, RTY1! +0.20% as traders brace for Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index prints.
• Sector Buzz: Industrials and materials under pressure after weak regional PMIs; financial futures are steady on robust Treasury bill demand; tech futures show mild upside on Fed speakers’ dovish undertones.
• Energy & Metals: Crude oil held VWAP support at $65.00 ahead of DOE inventory data; gold steadied around $3,308 as safe-haven flows offset stronger US yields.

Impact: Mixed global cues and upcoming US PMI data have set a cautious tone—expect range-bound trading in equity futures, fading initial extremes into VWAP levels and watching for rotation between cyclicals and defensives.

Technical Analysis

• ES (S&P 500 Futures): Continues to hold above VWAP (~6,240), consolidating near the upper VWAP band after last night’s rally. Footprint deltas show buyers absorbing offers on every dip—ideal for pullback entries toward VWAP support, targeting a retest of 6,260+.
• NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures): Grinding higher above VWAP (~22,600) with tight ranges squeezing upside. Positive delta clusters on each pullback signal fresh longs; a break above 22,650 opens the door to new highs, with stops under 22,580.
• YM (Dow Futures): Trading in a narrow band around VWAP (~44,200). Sideways action suggests indecision—scalp long above 44,250 and short below 44,150, while waiting for a clear directional breakout.
• RTY (Russell 2000 Futures): Bounced from VWAP support at 2,190 overnight. Mildly positive deltas indicate accumulation—scalp long near 2,188 with tight risk, eyeing a move back toward 2,200.
• CL (Crude Oil Futures): Recovered from VWAP (~65.00) but stalled near the mid-VWAP band. Prefer cautious long scalps above 65.20, with stops just below 64.80—avoid chasing if price breaks down further.
• GC (Gold Futures): Reclaimed VWAP (~3,308) yet met resistance at the upper channel. Fade below 3,300 or wait for a decisive close above 3,312 before committing to directional trades.
• Overall VWAP & Delta Trends: Major equity indices remain structurally bullish, anchored above VWAP with delta clusters confirming bids on dips. Align entries with VWAP touchpoints and footprint signals for high-probability scalps.

Economic Events Analysis

• 09:45 AM – US Chicago PMI (Jun): 40.5 vs 44 consensus (prior 43). A sharper-than-expected contraction in early manufacturing activity should pressure industrial and tech futures out of the gate. Fade breakouts below VWAP, then look to pivot on any replenishment of bids.
• 10:30 AM – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): –15.3 vs –10 prior. Continued weakness in regional factory conditions reinforces caution on breakout plays—keep stops tight and favor defensive names.
• 11:30 AM – US 3-/6-Month Bill Auctions: Yields near 4.20% and 4.12%. Watch for bid-to-cover ratios—strong demand may underpin risk assets, while softer demand could spark a pullback in equity futures.
• 12:00 PM – US Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn 8.15 B vs 4.65 B prior, Soy 1.91 B vs 0.97 B, Wheat 1.24 B vs 0.84 B. Big inventory builds could ripple through ag-exposed sectors—expect modest cross-asset volatility around these prints.
• Speeches – Fed Bostic (10:00 AM) & Fed Goolsbee (1:00 PM): Any hawkish tinges will likely dent equity futures, whereas dovish comments could reignite the rally. Position sizing and stop placement are critical into those addresses.

Foundational Analysis

• US Manufacturing Health: Chicago PMI plunged to 40.5, signaling renewed industrial contraction; Dallas Fed index at –15.3 confirms regional factory weakness.
• Government Debt Demand: Strong demand at 3‑ and 6‑month Treasury bill auctions underpins risk appetite via stable front-end yields.
• Agricultural Stocks: USDA grain stocks report shows sizable builds in corn (8.15 B bu), soy (1.91 B bu), and wheat (1.24 B bu), pressuring ag-related exposures.
• Fed Speeches: Bostic (10:00 AM) and Goolsbee (1:00 PM) on tap—hawkish undertones could weigh on futures, while dovish comments may trigger a relief rally.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• 09:45 AM – Chicago PMI: Fade ES1! breakouts below VWAP on weak PMI; then pivot long on any reclaim toward VWAP support (6,240).
• 10:00 AM – Fed Bostic: Tighten stops and avoid directional bias into speech; scalp small-range moves on delta clusters.
• 10:30 AM – Dallas Fed Index: Lean defensive scalps in RTY1! and YM1! on continued manufacturing weakness; target range edges with low risk.
• 11:30 AM – 3/6 M Bill Auctions: Watch yield-driven momentum in financial futures; scalp yield-sensitive moves in ES1! against VWAP pivot.
• 12:00 PM – Grain Stocks: Expect modest volatility in ag and energy; use footprint signals to scalp CL1! around VWAP and grain-exposed ETF proxies.

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What Could Happen After Market Open

• 09:45 AM: Chicago PMI print sparks early volatility—expect whipsaws around VWAP before a trend emerges.
• 10:00 AM: Fed Bostic’s remarks may trigger knee-jerk reactions; monitor quick reversals on delta fade.
• 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed manufacturing data could extend or reverse early moves; use VWAP bands for guidance.
• 11:30 AM: Bill auction results may drive yield-sensitive sectors; watch financial futures for breakouts or reversals.
• 12:00 PM: Grain stocks release may create cross-asset ripples; energy and ag proxies likely see sharp but short-lived moves.
• 1:00 PM: Fed Goolsbee speech caps session—final directional push possible, align scalps with footprint delta cues.

Summary

Today’s session revolves around a sharp manufacturing contraction in the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed prints, offset by solid Treasury bill demand and large grain inventory builds. Fed speakers Bostic and Goolsbee add directional uncertainty. Trade initial volatility with VWAP and footprint delta signals, favor defensive scalps into weakness, then pivot to momentum continuation on any dovish relief. Sources: CME Group, S&P Global, Federal Reserve, USDA, US Treasury.

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