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Jobs Watch: Your June 09 Equity Futures Playbook

Jobs Watch: Your June 09 Equity Futures Playbook

Market Overview and Sentiment News

  • Mixed Asia Trade After China PMI Surprise: Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in May, weighing on MSCI Asia ex-Japan and underscoring slowing global demand. Equity futures in the U.S. opened flat on this signal, keeping NQ and ES in a narrow range.
  • Tech Earnings Drive Sentiment: Microsoft topped estimates with cloud revenue growth, while Intel missed on PC sales. This divergence is keeping Nasdaq futures bidirectional and adding a tilt toward large-cap tech long/short pair trades.
  • Oil Inventories and OPEC Watch: API reported a 2.4 M barrel build on Friday, pushing WTI lower to $64.30. Energy-related futures in RTY and sector ETFs are pressured as traders await formal EIA data at 10:30 AM.
  • Fed Minutes Preview: Markets brace for Wednesday’s Fed Open Market Committee minutes at 2 PM ET. A hawkish tilt in the minutes could lift Treasury yields and pressure rate-sensitive sectors like YM and RTY.
  • U.S. Treasury Yields on the Rise: The 10‑year yield climbed to 3.58% after hawkish Fed comments last week, capping upside in financial futures and keeping small caps and real estate under pressure.

Impact: Choppy trade likely ahead of key data and minutes. VWAP-aware entries around flat price action in ES and NQ, plus tight risk on tech earnings swings, will be crucial for intraday success.

Technical Analysis

(All times EDT, based on the 5-minute footprint charts for CL, GC, YM, NQ, and ES as of 0800 June 9, 2025)

  • Light Crude Oil Futures (CL):
    • Footprint & Order Flow: Early selling pressure from 07:05–07:15 ET (delta –35) gave way to a decisive buying cluster at 07:30 ET (delta +94 on heavier volume), suggesting institutional accumulation near $64.50.
    • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP = 64.48. Price has reclaimed and held above VWAP, now testing resistance at 64.90 (upper Bollinger band). Support lies at 64.25 (opening-range low) and VWAP.
    • Momentum & Volatility:
      • ATR (14): ≈ 0.08, up from yesterday’s 0.07, indicating slight uptick in intraday volatility.
      • OBV: rising steadily since 07:30 ET, confirming buy-side commitment.
      • Choppiness (14): ≈ 48; a drop below ~38 would signal a clearer trending move.
    • Interpretation & Intra-Day Plan: Holding above VWAP with follow-through buying suggests a bullish bias. Target a run toward 65.10 on a clean break above 64.90. If VWAP fails, look for a retest of 64.25 with stops below VWAP.
  • Gold Futures (GC):
    • Footprint & Order Flow: Sellers regained control from 07:10–07:20 ET (delta –63), keeping price below VWAP.
    • VWAP & Key Levels: VWAP = 3,333.70. Price is testing support near 3,329.00. Resistance at VWAP and then 3,339.50 (upper ATR band).
    • Momentum & Volatility:
      • ATR (14): ≈ 2.70, showing steady volatility.
      • OBV: trending lower, signaling distribution.
      • Choppiness (14): ≈ 58, indicating a congested range.
    • Interpretation & Intra-Day Plan: Bias remains mildly bearish below VWAP. Consider shorting a break under 3,329.00 with a target toward 3,325.00. A reclaim of VWAP with volume could open a relief rally to 3,339.50.
  • E-Mini Dow Jones (YM):
    • Overview: Price oscillating in a narrow range just above VWAP at 42,804.00, with limited order-flow skew (delta ~–10 to +15).
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 14.0; OBV slightly negative; Choppiness ≈ 51, suggesting rangebound conditions.
    • Plan: Buy near VWAP for a move toward 42,880.00; respect failure below VWAP for potential shorts to 42,750.00.
  • Nasdaq 100 E-mini (NQ):
    • Overview: Sustained trading above VWAP at 21,766.00 since a 07:25 ET bounce (delta +67), reflecting buyer support.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 11.8; OBV trending higher; Choppiness ≈ 52, indicating early trending potential.
    • Plan: Target a break above 21,820.00 for continuation longs; consider shorts if price slips below VWAP with increased selling volume.
  • S&P 500 E-mini (ES):
    • Overview: Buying cluster at 07:20–07:30 ET around VWAP (6,005.21) shows institutional defense of that pivot.
    • Momentum & Volatility: ATR ≈ 2.59; OBV rising; Choppiness ≈ 50, indicating a balanced but potentially directional setup.
    • Plan: Long above VWAP targeting 6,020.00; respect breakdown under VWAP for short opportunities targeting 6,000.00.

Foundational Analysis

  • China Demand Concerns: Weak PMI underlines slowing manufacturing activity—reducing commodity and tech export momentum and constraining equity futures upside.
  • Fed Outlook Remains Hawkish: Fed speakers last week emphasized further data dependence for rate cuts. Minutes may reinforce a cautious stance, keeping yield-sensitive futures subdued.
  • Tech Sector Divergence: Strong enterprise spend on cloud contrasts with consumer PC weakness, creating a bimodal bias within NQ futures.
  • Energy Market Dynamics: Rising U.S. inventories amid OPEC production talks are capping oil gains, pressuring energy names in RTY and sector plays in ES.
  • Technical Anchors: Key VWAP levels and volume-profile bands on 5- and 15-minute charts remain critical pivot zones for scalps and breakout attempts.

Takeaway: Slowing global growth signals, mixed earnings, and a hawkish Fed backdrop point to a cautious bias. Trading around technical pivots and event-driven swings will be the name of the game.

Economic Events & Trading Implications

Time (ET) Event Forecast Impact
04:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change –3.3M 🔶 Medium
08:30 AM (Wed) US Core & Headline CPI MoM/YoY MoM 0.2% / YoY 2.3% (CPI); Core MoM 0.2% / YoY 2.8% 🔺 High
10:30 AM (Wed) US EIA Crude & Gasoline Stocks Change Crude –4.304M; Gasoline +5.219M 🔶 Medium
02:00 PM (Wed) US Monthly Budget Statement –$312B 🔶 Medium
08:30 AM (Thu) US PPI & Core PPI MoM PPI –0.5%; Core –0.4% 🔺 High
08:30 AM (Thu) US Initial Jobless Claims 247K 🔺 High
10:00 AM (Fri) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 52.2 🔶 Medium

Analysis & Trader Takeaways:

  • 04:30 PM API Report: A larger draw than forecast would buoy CL and RTY energy names; a surprise build could trigger short scalps in energy equities.
  • Wednesday CPI Prints: Above‑consensus inflation will likely lift Treasury yields, pressuring ES and NQ—fade rallies above VWAP if yields spike ≥ 10 bps; buy dips near VWAP if inflation undershoots.
  • Wednesday EIA Stocks: A deep crude draw supports energy futures; watch CL and sector ETFs on a bounce to the VWAP zone for quick longs.
  • Fed‑Sensitive PPI & Jobless Claims: Thursday’s PPI drop may ease Fed tightening bets—long ES/RTY on dip if PPI MoM < –0.5%; jobless claims above forecasts could dent equity futures, favoring short scalps.
  • Friday Sentiment: A weak Michigan reading may cap intraday upside—consider shorting extended rallies in NQ and ES ahead of the long weekend.

Key Levels & VWAP Pivots:

  • CL VWAP – 64.48; support 64.25; resistance 64.90.
  • ES VWAP – 6,005.21; support 6,000.00; resistance 6,020.00.
  • NQ VWAP – 21,766.00; support 21,750.00; resistance 21,820.00.
  • YM VWAP – 42,804.00; support 42,750.00; resistance 42,880.00.
  • GC VWAP – 3,333.70; support 3,329.00; resistance 3,339.50.

Today’s Strategy for Scalpers and What to Watch For

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  • Fed Minutes Scalps (2:00 PM ET): Fade knee‑jerk yield spikes above VWAP in ES and NQ; consider long pullbacks toward VWAP if minutes appear dovish.
  • API Oil Reaction (10:30 AM ET): A larger-than-expected crude draw (< –2.8 M) supports CL and energy equities—buy dips to VWAP bands; a build invites short scalps toward lower profile nodes.
  • Tech Earnings Swings: Use tight intraday stops around Microsoft and Intel earnings gaps—buy on beat headlines, short on misses within 5-minute VWAP channels.
  • Yield-Sensitive Plays: If 10‑year yield breaches 3.60%, look to short YM and RTY rallies to VWAP; if yields retreat below 3.55%, buy dips in financial futures.
  • Volume-Profile Range Trades: Between VWAP and the upper profile node on 15-minute charts in ES or YM, buy near support and sell near resistance with tight stops.

What Could Happen After Market Open

  • China PMI Kickoff (Open): Early weakness from Asia PMI may pressure ES and NQ to VWAP (~6,005; ~21,800) on initial U.S. open.
  • Fed Minutes Reaction (2:00 PM ET): A hawkish tone could send 10-year yields toward 3.7%, dragging YM to 42,700 and ES to 6,010; dovish cues may flip into relief rally.
  • EIA Inventory Impact (10:30 AM ET): A surprise draw will boost CL toward $65.00, benefiting energy names; a build could see CL test $64.00 and cap RTY.
  • Tech Earnings Aftershocks: Post-open prints from Microsoft and Intel could trigger 10–15 tick moves in NQ—plan quick long/short scalps around VWAP channels.
  • Yield Pivot Levels: Watch 10-year yield 3.55–3.60% as the inflection zone for YM and RTY directional bias.

Summary

Equity futures are navigating mixed global cues—weak China PMI, divergent tech earnings, and rising Treasury yields—while awaiting Fed minutes and EIA inventory data. Technical pivots around VWAP and volume-profile nodes will guide intraday trades. Scalpers should focus on event-driven swings with tight risk controls, using QuantVPS latency edge to capture quick moves ahead of potential volatility spikes.

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