Fed Decision Eve: Retail Sales & Industrial Production Set the Tone — Sep 16, 2025 Scalper’s Playbook
Market Overview & Sentiment News
U.S. equity index futures are modestly green into a front-loaded data day as traders position for a widely expected 25 bp Fed cut on Wednesday (statement 2:00 ET; press conference follows). Early U.S. data—Retail Sales (8:30), Industrial Production (9:15), and NAHB HMI (10:00)—will steer intraday leadership and the path of yields into the decision. Bonds lean duration-positive on cut odds while crude’s firm tone keeps inflation watchers alert. Net read: constructive but data-sensitive risk tone into the Fed.Use a Virtual Private Server: With QuantVPS, you can execute trades with a 1 ms latency. Sign up here!
Technical Analysis
Price discovery likely builds a morning range with expansions keyed to 8:30 / 9:15 / 10:00 ET. Rising volume on a VWAP loss favors mean-reversion shorts back toward mid/previous balance; VWAP holds with improving breadth support continuation flags.- ES: Lean long above VWAP on higher lows and improving cumulative delta; flip short on decisive VWAP break with breadth deterioration.
- NQ: Momentum-skewed; fade failed breakouts back to VWAP when tech headlines hit; chase only with volume + tick confirmation.
- YM: Slower rotations; use OR extremes and prior day levels.
- RTY: Yield-sensitive; front-end yield pops often translate to relative weakness—favor VWAP reclaim/fail setups with tight invalidation.
Economic Calendar Insights & Trading Plan
- Tue 8:30 ET – Retail Sales/Core: Hotter print → yields up, growth-at-any-price pressured; softer print → yields ease, duration-sensitive growth/tech buoyed.
- Tue 9:15 ET – Industrial Production/Capacity: Confirms or challenges the growth read; surprises can pivot small caps/cyclicals.
- Tue 10:00 ET – NAHB HMI: Builder sentiment update; beats support cyclicals if yields contained, misses reinforce defensives.
- Wed 10:30 ET – EIA Petroleum: Inventory swings feed inflation expectations and energy leadership.
- Wed 14:00 ET – FOMC Decision (+ presser): Center of gravity for the week; trade the reaction, not the prediction.
Foundational Analysis
Structural supports (buybacks, passive) meet macro fragility (mixed growth, inflation optics, geopolitics). Expect fast capital rotation around releases and a tech-led tape where NQ remains the risk barometer. If yields ease on soft data, duration-sensitive growth should lead; if data runs hot, cyclicals/energy may outperform while high-multiple tech chops.Today’s Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch
Highest-probability edges are rule-based around data timestamps and structure. Execute small size into prints, scale after the first reaction. Use cross-asset confirms (USTs, DXY, CL). Keep expectations for whipsaws and respect slippage. For execution performance and low-latency connectivity, keep the affiliate link visible.- 08:25–08:35 ET (Retail Sales): Let first 30–60s print. Plan A: If ES/NQ spike then stall below ONH with yields rising, fade back to VWAP (tight stop above wick). Plan B: If yields drop and NQ reclaims VWAP with breadth improving, buy pullbacks toward VWAP/OR high.
- 09:15 ET (IP/Capacity): Trade follow-through or fade of the 8:30 impulse. If data confirms the first move, chase with smaller size and trail; if it contradicts, look for sharp mean-reversion into VWAP.
- 10:00 ET (NAHB HMI): Housing beat + contained yields favors RTY/financials; miss + easing yields favors NQ. Scalps: VWAP reclaims/fails aligned with yield reaction.
- Cross-asset tells: CL bid + rising UST yields = pressure on NQ; easing yields = tech relief. Use DXY for risk pulse.
- Risk controls: Cut size into the Fed; widen stops slightly but reduce leverage. First target 1R, partials early, trail for 2R–3R only with momentum.
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Market Open Projections / What Could Happen After Market Open
- Base case (45%): OR chop → VWAP hold → intraday balance; traders fade extremes and scalp VWAP reverts.
- Alt 1 (35%): Hot Retail Sales/IP → yields jump → VWAP break and NQ underperforms; favor short bounces to VWAP.
- Alt 2 (20%): Softer data → yields ease → NQ leadership; buy pullbacks to VWAP/ORH with tight invalidation.