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Futures Market Playbook: September 29, 2025 — Gold at Record Highs, Oil Pressured, Dollar Softens

1. Foundational (Macro) Analysis

Markets enter today with a risk-on lean:

  • Policy & Rates: 10Y futures trade near 109.20 (~4.13% yield), extending last week’s rally. Lower yields are keeping growth/tech supported.

  • FX: DXY at 97.82, continuing its pullback — weaker dollar boosts global risk sentiment.

  • Commodities:

    • Gold (GC) remains firm near $3,833/oz, just shy of all-time highs.

    • Crude oil (CL) trades down at $64.47, pressured by supply headlines.

    • Natural gas (NG) rebounded to $3.20 after overnight weakness.

  • Global Equities: Asian/European indices closed stronger, underpinning U.S. futures.

  • Geopolitics/Policy: Shutdown deadline Tuesday night and Oct 1 tariff implementation remain live overhangs.

📊 Risk Bias: Constructive risk-on — lower yields and softer USD are supportive, but shutdown/tariff risk caps enthusiasm.

2. Technical Analysis (Live Levels)

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Equity Index Futures

  • S&P 500 (ES): 6,723

    • Resistance: 6,730–6,750

    • Support: 6,700 / 6,680

    • Bias: Bullish above VWAP; watch rejection at 6,730.

  • Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 24,838

    • Resistance: 24,850 / 24,900

    • Support: 24,750 / 24,720

  • Dow Jones (YM): 46,740

    • Resistance: 46,750–46,800

    • Support: 46,600 / 46,450

  • Russell 2000 (RTY): 2,463

    • Resistance: 2,465 / 2,480

    • Support: 2,450 / 2,430

Commodities

  • Gold (GC): $3,833

    • Resistance: 3,860–3,880

    • Support: 3,820 / 3,800

    • Uptrend intact.

  • Crude Oil (CL): $64.47

    • Resistance: 65.5–66.0

    • Support: 64.3 / 63.8

    • Bias: Short rallies until supply story changes.

  • Natural Gas (NG): $3.20

    • Range: 3.15–3.25

Volatility & Cross-Assets

  • VIX Futures: 16.65 — subdued, consistent with a controlled open.

  • DXY Futures: 97.82 — trending lower, a risk-on confirmation.

  • 10Y Futures: 109.20 (~4.13% yield) — bid tone supports tech/growth leadership.

3. Events & Economic Calendar

  • 10:00 ET — Pending Home Sales (Aug)

  • 10:30 ET — Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Sep)

  • 11:30 ET — Treasury 13- & 26-week bill auctions

  • 12:00 ET — Fed Governor Miran remarks

⏰ Expect intraday volatility spikes at 10:00–10:30 ET and possible follow-through at 11:30–12:00 ET.

4. Market News & Sentiment Drivers

  • Shutdown risk: Market still watching Tuesday night’s deadline.

  • Gold at records: Reinforces lower-rate narrative.

  • Oil softness: Driven by Kurdistan exports and OPEC+ supply chatter.

  • Global equities firm: Overnight risk tone positive.

  • Tariffs Oct 1: Fresh inflation/growth overhang.

5. Strategy Recommendations for Traders

(Educational only — not financial advice)

Equity Indices

  • ES/NQ:

    • Long bias: Hold above VWAP + breakout >ONH (ES 6,730 / NQ 24,850).

    • Short bias: Failures at resistance + VIX uptick above 17 → fade back to 6,700 / 24,750.

  • RTY: Above 2,465 opens path to 2,480; below 2,450 turns defensive.

Gold (GC)

  • Buy dips into 3,820–3,800; breakout extension if USD stays weak.

Crude (CL)

  • Fade rallies into 65.5–66.0, cover near 64.3.

Natural Gas (NG)

  • Trade range 3.15–3.25; intraday bounce favors upper test.

Bonds (10Y / ZN)

  • Soft data → yields down → long ZN scalp.

  • Strong data → yields up → short ZN scalp.

✅ Summary

As of premarket:

  • ES 6,723 | NQ 24,838 | YM 46,740 | RTY 2,463

  • GC 3,833 | CL 64.47 | NG 3.20

  • DXY 97.82 | 10Y 109.20 (~4.13% yield) | VIX 16.65

Backdrop remains risk-on with a softer dollar and lower yields, but shutdown and tariffs are the wildcards. Key catalyst window is 10:00–10:30 ET.

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This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.

Location: New York, NY, USA

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