Seven fixed rules for trading the Nasdaq-100 open

Seven fixed rules for trading Nasdaq-100 futures after the open, built from the overnight price range, the opening gap and where the market traded the day before, then a grid of stop-loss and profit-target distances. All seven rules failed, and no stop or target setting rescued them.

Refuted: Failed its test once trading costs were included. How to read a study.

Verdict, as the study states it: Part A: all seven policies refuted. Part B geometry grid: Survivors none; Suggestive none.

Study number

FPR-26-06

Versions tested

196

Pre-registration written

Sep 9, 2026, 11:57 ET

First result

Sep 9, 2026, 11:58 ET

Markets

NQ

Backs

Opening-range breaks

Sample

NQ 1m GLBX .c.0, 2012-01-03 to 2026-09-04, 3,569 sessions; halves 2012-2018 / 2019-2026

Costs

0.25 pt slippage against the trade on fills; no commission (about $4.5 round turn, noted as about 0.006R)

Notes and defects

Included because Parts C and D of this prereg define the gamma-wall rules tested in gamma-wall-backfill, and crown_policies.py/open_factors.py are code dependencies of every gamma study. Part A (7 policies) prereg created 11:57:36, before crown_policies.py (11:58:29) and its results (11:58:53). Partial because Parts B-D were appended to the same file later (final write 12:34:38) and the Part B grid results were written at 12:14:16, so the file system cannot show Part B's text predates its results. Arms = 7 (Part A) + 189 (Part B grid: 7 policies x 27 geometries). P6 is a 15-minute opening-range-break control (-0.003 R/trigger, n=3,497). One sentence quoting the live crown-play record was redacted under the disclosure rule. open_factors.py also runs the 2026-09-08 open-factor study, which is not part of this bundle.

Data needed to rerun: CME futures 1-minute OHLCV bars (Databento GLBX layout: ts_event,rtype,publisher_id,instrument_id,open,high,low,close,volume,symbol) at <data-root>/fp-data/glbx/<ROOT>/1m/<YEAR>.csv; licensed vendor data, not redistributed (NQ 2011-2026; open_factors.py builds the data/NQ_1m_et.parquet cache that crown_policies.py requires); FRED VXN

Original working title: Mechanical crown-play policies on NQ (Part A), exit-geometry grid (Part B), and the definitions of the gamma-wall policies (Parts C, D)

Files

Hashes for every file are in SHA256SUMS. Market data is not included.

Cite this study

Futures Playbook Research (2026). Seven fixed rules for trading the Nasdaq-100 open. Study FPR-26-06. https://www.futuresplaybook.com/research/crown-play-policies

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.