Jackson Hole Playbook: Futures Rip Into Powell — August 22 Trading Blueprint

Market Overview & Sentiment News

• Futures rip into Powell: After a sharp pre‑market air‑pocket, ES, NQ, YM and RTY all staged a V‑reversal and reclaimed VWAP, basing near session highs ahead of Chair Powell’s 10:00 ET Jackson Hole remarks. Breadth and volume improved on the rebound, raising the odds of a trend‑day if opening‑range highs hold.
• Rates in focus, volatility likely: With the policy path in the spotlight, rate and dollar swings are the key cross‑asset drivers today. A dovish tilt favors duration and growth; a hawkish tone pressures long duration and cyclicals.
• Oil churns, energy watch: Crude remains choppy and mostly below session VWAP, with attention on the 1:00 ET Baker Hughes rig count for a potential afternoon impulse.
• Gold mixed into the event: GC is range‑bound and whippy around VWAP as traders trim hedges into the speech; expect two‑way risk and fast reversals.
• Earnings calendar light; macro dominates: With the micro tape quiet, the market tone is set by Jackson Hole headlines and rate expectations into month‑end.

Economic Calendar Analysis & Trading Plan

Today is dominated by Jackson Hole. Position sizing and execution discipline matter more than direction—expect velocity and whipsaws around the headline.

• 10:00 ET — Chair Powell (Jackson Hole): The binary driver.
  • Dovish/soft landing tone: Emphasis on disinflation progress and data‑dependence opens the door to earlier easing. Playbook: favor NQ leadership; buy pullbacks to VWAP/opening‑range (OR) high that hold; watch for breadth confirmation in RTY.
  • Hawkish/higher‑for‑longer tone: If persistence of inflation and financial‑conditions concerns are stressed, expect a dollar/rate pop and risk‑off. Playbook: fade lower‑highs into VWAP; YM/RTY likely underperform.
• 1:00 ET — Baker Hughes rig counts: A secondary catalyst for CL and energy equities. Fewer rigs can buoy crude intraday; more rigs may cap rallies. Equity index impact is usually modest unless the crude move is outsized.
• Evening — Jackson Hole Symposium continues: Headline risk persists into the weekend though U.S. equities are closed.

Foundational Analysis

• Disinflation, but path uncertain: Inflation has cooled versus last year and markets retain elevated expectations for policy easing over the coming months, but timing depends on incoming data and the Fed’s risk‑management stance.
• Financial conditions supportive: Tight credit spreads and ample liquidity keep a tailwind under equities, yet they also lessen the Fed’s urgency to accelerate cuts.
• Valuations rich, leadership concentrated: Mega‑cap growth continues to set the pace; rotational participation from cyclicals often improves when yields ease.
• Energy supply dynamics: Crude’s recent softness reflects comfortable supply; without a clear deficit, rallies may be sold until inventories tighten or OPEC+ signals change.
• Key risk: A hawkish‑leaning Fed message that lifts real yields and the dollar, pressuring duration‑sensitive tech and small caps.

Technical Analysis

• Structure across indices: ES, NQ, YM, and RTY printed a pre‑market V‑bottom, reclaimed VWAP, and are riding the upper VWAP band. That setup favors trend‑day continuation if OR highs hold after the cash open.
• ES (S&P 500 futures): Prefer pullback buys into VWAP/OR high that hold; invalidation is a loss of the pre‑market higher‑low. For shorts, wait for a confirmed lower‑high below VWAP.
• NQ (Nasdaq‑100 futures): Relative strength. Use 1–3 minute bull‑flag continuations on rising volume; avoid chasing into 10:00 ET headline risk.
• YM (Dow futures): Reclaimed VWAP but lags NQ. Look for continuation only on OR‑high holds; otherwise fade back to VWAP.
• RTY (Russell 2000 futures): Catch‑up bid present. Sustained trade above OR high would confirm broader risk‑on; below VWAP, expect choppier mean‑reversion.
• GC (Gold futures): Two‑sided and below/around VWAP. Treat as range‑trade: fade moves into VWAP bands until a clean break on volume.
• CL (Crude oil futures): Choppy below VWAP; sell rips toward VWAP/upper band unless 1:00 ET rig data triggers a regime change.

Todays Strategy for Scalpers & What to Watch For

• Pre‑open mapping (9:20–9:30 ET): Mark overnight high/low, VWAP, and build opening‑range (OR) levels. Bias follows the first VWAP test after the open.
• 9:30–9:55 ET: Trade small. Fade extremes back to VWAP; take partials quickly. No hero trades with Powell at 10:00.
• 10:00 ET event protocol: Flatten/reduce into 9:57–10:03. Wait for a 1–2 minute close that holds outside the initial spike before following through. Use half‑size and wider stops on first entry.
• Continuation vs. Reversal tells: Continuation = OR high holds and volume expands above VWAP. Reversal = failed breakout and swift return through VWAP—switch to fade‑back‑to‑VWAP setups.
• Energy window (1:00 ET): For CL, trade the first pullback after the rig‑count impulse; avoid trading during the initial print.
• Execution edge: Use a low‑latency VPS to avoid slippage during event bursts. With QuantVPS, execute with sub‑1 ms latency.

What Could Happen After Market Open

• Post‑Powell path: A dovish lean can produce a trend‑up day led by NQ with RTY confirmation; a hawkish tilt favors a lower‑high failure and VWAP fades. Expect elevated realized volatility through late morning.
• Midday digestion: If the first move exhausts, look for a noon lull and a secondary push aligned with the morning’s dominant direction.
• 1:00 ET rig counts: Potential for an energy‑led pop/drop in CL with spillover into energy equities; index impact typically modest unless crude swings are outsized.
• Late‑session dynamics: Into the Jackson Hole weekend, watch for headline‑driven reversals and position‑squaring; manage risk on open positions.

Summary

Equity futures erased an early swoon and now sit near session highs into Chair Powell’s 10:00 ET Jackson Hole speech. The tape favors continuation if opening‑range highs hold, but the day is binary around the headline. Plan the two paths: dovish = growth‑led trend up; hawkish = lower‑high failures and VWAP fades. Gold is two‑sided, crude is choppy into the 1:00 ET rig count, and event‑driven volatility is the base case. Stay nimble, trade the reaction not the prediction, and keep risk tight.

Sources: TradingView (price action), Investing.com economic calendar, CME FedWatch for rate‑expectation context.